Army suffers “Agni Kheela” type debacle again
October 15th, 2006
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
It was deja vu all over again on Oct 11th 2006!
Five and a half years aho on April 24th 2001 the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) under President Chandrika Kumaratunga launched a military operation called “agni kheela” (fire flame in English and thee chuvaalai in Tamil).
[An SLA armoured personnel carrier destroyed by the LTTE in Operation 'Agni Kheela' near Muhamalai. - Photo:TamilNet]
After intensive aerial bombardment and artillery shelling to “soften up” LTTE defences the armed forces proceeded from positions along the Kilaly – Eluthumadduvaal – Nagarkovil axis towards the South and South – East of the Jaffna peninsula.
The objective was Elephant pass. It was then as is now an issue of prestige as well as strategic importance to regain Elephant pass which had been fallen to the tigers the previous year.
Previously the LTTE had declared a unilateral ceasefire on Christmas day and extended it for four months. The GOSL refused to accept the olive branch extended and continued with provocative tactics. Finally the LTTE called off the ceasefire.
Within two days the armed forces launched Agnikheela.
The troops advanced well into the Pallai – Soranpattru – Massar area with relatively little tiger oppposition. The first few days seemed to indicate that the LTTE was on the verge of defeat.
The International community was conspicuously silent on the firts two days when it appeared that GOSL troops were having the upper hand.
Then the tigers hit back!
In 36 hours the armed forces suffered a humiliating defeat incurring more than 6oo casualties dead and wounded.
The International community (IC)sprang into action. Breaking their silence statements were issued urging both sides to eschew violence and go in for a negotiated settlement. With the Katunayake attack of July 24th the Sri Lankan air force was crippled.
The IC was convinced the LTTE could not be contained by the GOSL. War was discouraged and a negotiated settlement was urged. The Norway facilitated peace process received firm IC backing. The rest was recent history.
Five years history is repeating itself “mutatis mutandis”.
For nearly six months the GOSL armed forces under President Mahinda Rajapakse have been targetting Tamil civilians under the pretext of combatting the tigers.
Aerial bombardment, artillery shelling etc of Tamil civilian habitats have been going on indiscriminately and incessantly/ Tamil civilians have been killed, arbitrarily arrested and made to “disappear” Unbridled state terror went on.
There was also war hysteria being whipped up in the South. Military “victories” were notched up in Maavilaaru, Muthur, Sampoor and Muhamaalai. It was widely proclaimed that the tigers were powerless and turned into kittens. “Kotiya dhan poos patiyek” gloated a Bhikku from Kadhirgaamam (Kataragama).
The Rajapakse regime rode the crest of a hawkish wave. War was the strident demand. The International community did nothing except to make some token gestures and issue mild statements.
It appeared that the world believed Rajapakse’s forces could exterminate the tigers despite violating human rights. They waited for the V – Day.
Some including this column repeatedly pleaded with the IC to take effective steps to bring about an end to the violence. The IC was implored to pressure Mahinda Rajapakse. Nothing substantial happened.
It was like the pre – Agnikheela atmosphere. And then came what was a second Agnikheela on Oct 11th.It was launched despite talks being scheduled for Oct 28th and 29th.
The GOSL made a military advance and was routed in the western side of the same region where Agnikheela occurred. The LTTE struck back and demonstrated that they were vibrant as ever.
Lo and Behold! The International community is coming out of its enforced hibernation. Vehement statements are being issued . Concern is expressed about rising levels of violence. It is being emphasised that both sides should desist from confrontation and resume negotiations. The US, Eu, India are all issuing strong statements.
US Asst Secretary of State Richard Boucher is coming; Japanese special envoy Akashi is coming. So too is Norway’s Hanssen – Bauer and possibly Erik Solheim. Yippee! Hurrah!!
How very nice of the International community to stir themselves into action when the GOSL is in trouble. But why was such inaction when the state was unleashing violence and terror on the Tamils?
Anyway better late than never. Let us hope the IC will hold the scales even at least now.
Humpty – dumpty has had a great fall. Can all the King’s horses and all the King’s men put him together again? Lets hope so!
What led to GOSL Armed forces downfall?An important reason was that the LTTE was waiting in readiness for the assault. The element of surprise was not there.The army was overconfident to the point of arrogance.
The GOSL and its armed forces had certainly been confidently cocksure in the recent past. It considered the limited successes it had enjoyed earlier as a predictable pattern. The GOSL has been engaging in propaganda that the tigers were at a low ebb. This propaganda was widely believed and had led to a strident demand in the South that an all out war be conducted against the LTTE. As former Aiir Force chief and father of present Air Force commander Harry Goonetilleke observed the “Government believed its own propaganda”.
The seeming docility of the LTTE had given the wrong picture to the GOSL. The strategic withdrawals by the LTTE in recent times had bolstered this feeling. Even during the current battle the tigers had initially let the army move in without much resistance. An overconfident army had either walked into or been lured into a deadly trap.
Whatever the statements made by GOSL and Defence spokespersons about the armed forces responding to attacks by the LTTE on the Kilaly – Eluthumadduvaal – Nagar Kovil FDL’s it was common knowledge beforehand that a major onslaught of a “defensive -offensive ” nature was imminent. The objective was to take Elephant pass before talks began in Geneva.
It was only last week that this writer drew attention to this prospect in these columns. A brief excerpt – ” Mahinda and his minions are more concerned with the taking of Elephant pass before talking in Geneva…………………Against that backdrop the Elephant pass offensive seems a definite possibility unless extra – heavy international pressure is exerted on Colombo to desist. Poor Norway is powerless in this. Only the super power and regional power can restrain the Rajapakse regime in this.If the IC is really genuine about a political settlement some positive, pre – emptive pressure on Colombo is a pre – requisite”
At a time when the Country was being carried away with the belief that the tiger had become a kitten (Koti dhan Poos patiyek) this writer warned that such an assumption was wrong. ” There is also an unknown factor. Colombo’s calculations are based on the assumption that a military success over the LTTE is inevitable in Elephant pass. The best laid plans of men and mice go awry. Whatever the crowing in Colombo the tigers are still not a spent force. They have “lost” battles but not the war. It is also a moot point as to whether Velupillai Pirapakaran would continue to let the Rajapakses and Sarath Fonseka define the venue and terms of conflict. There may be unexpected twists and turns on the road to Elephant pass.” was what I wrote last week.
It became soon apparent that a major offensive was being planned. Military vehicles had been moving South along the Jaffna – Kandy road bringing in men and materials to Kodikaamam – Mirusuvil – Varany region. Some vehicles had taken stuff to Ariyaalai and Ariyaalaimunai its coastal point along the Jaffna lagoon. Vehicles had also moved along the Jaffna – Point Pedro road and then de-toured to Varany on the Point Pedro – Kodikaamam road. The vehicular movement indicated that war materials were being brought from Palaaly – Kankesanthurai in readiness for a large – scale operation.
The GOSL denied charges of an offensive being planned. It was acknowledged that war materials were being moved to the frontline but the explanation proferred was that depleted stocks were being replenished as a matter of routine and not for offensive purposes.
The LTTE also warned of an imminent GOSL offensive under the pretext of combatting alleged LTTE attacks. Tiger political commissar Suppiah Paramu Thamilselvan asked the SLMM to go to the Frontlines and ascertain for themselves who the real aggressors were. The GOSL however refused to provide access to the SLMM. The excuse was that their safety could not be guaranteed. This act raised suspicion that the GOSL was hiding something.
The armed forces also commandeered more than 200 boats belonging to Gurunagar – Pashaiyoor fisherfolk. Marine xercises were undertaken with these boats on Oct 9th and 10th in the Jaffna lagoon. It appeared that the armed forces were planning to launch a sea – borne assault across the lagoon to Poonagary on the lagoon. Since the waters were shallow heavy naval boats could not be used and hence the lighter fishing boats it was felt. Intensive aerial bombardment and artillery firing on Poonagary and adjacent Kalmunai strengthened this belief.
On Tuesday Oct 10th the GOSL authorities in Jaffna announced a 45 hour curfew from 8. 00 am to 5.00 am on Thursday Oct 12th in certain places like Koilakkandy, Thanankilappu, Kachai etc. These were all vantage points on the peninsula from where a lagoon crossing to the mainland could have been done.It was widely believed then that an amphibean operation was to be conducted soon.
The conduct of President Mahinda Rajapakse provided further clues about Colombo’s intentions.When representatives of the four co – chairs of the peace process met Mahinda they requested the GOSL to refrain from undertaking military operations because talks were scheduled on Oct 28th and 29th. Rajapakse however parroted his familiar stance about reserving the right to defend the Country from LTTE attacks.
If that was one indication there was also the symbolic gesture of climbing the cockpit of an Israeli K- firs. These bombers have wrought much civilian destruction and the pilots responsible are potential contenders for a war crimes trial. Yet Rajapakse deliberately identified himself with these embodiments of Aerial terror.
Against that backdrop there seems little chance of the campaign for war ceasing. There may be a lull in the fighting but the GOSL will certainly continue with “defensive – Offensive” operations. The Rajapakse regime is built on a war agenda. Mahinda and his sidekicks have gone too far in projecting themselves as latter day “Dutu Gemunus” to hold back now. The Rajapakse regime has enhanced its image in the South that it will not bow down to tiger might. It cannot go for talks after a resounding defeat.
In the self – perception of the GOSL and its armed forces too much is at stake to call off war now.More battles are likely to follow until a decisive stage is reached.The LTTE too cannot lower its military resistance.This situation cannot change for the better until and unless the International community is serious and sincere about ending the war and promoting peace in Sri Lanka.
So then the fighting will very likely continue with occasional lulls.. The sword – bearing lion and grimacing tiger cannot purr and meow like lesser felines. The “Sinhaya” has to roar and the “Puli” has to growl. The Country in general and the Tamil people in particular can only cry out “Aiyo”!
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