Full-Scale War Imminent on the Northern Front
September 22nd, 2007
by D.B.S. Jeyaraj
If anyone thought that military operations were intended to pressurise the LTTE into coming to the negotiating table, such illusions were effectively dispelled by the Defence Secretary’s frank disclosure. It is no longer a case of bringing the LTTE to the negotiating table through military means for a political settlement. It is now a case of destroying or diminishing the LTTE as a pre-requisite for a political solution
It’s ‘unofficially’ official now! Three things are certain.
-There’s going to be a big war in the Northern Province against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
-There will be no let up until the objective of vanquishing the Tigers is achieved. Even if it is not feasible, an ongoing relentless attempt will be made.
-There won’t be any political solution until and unless the military goal of eradicating ‘terrorism’ (read LTTE) is fulfilled.
Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa emphasised the above three points unambiguously at Trincomalee last week. The occasion was the felicitation ceremony for the navy for reportedly destroying three ships, allegedly carrying arms for the LTTE.
Sri Lanka’s Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakasa delivers speech during a ceremony in Trincomalee September 17, 2007. REUTERS/Anuruddha Lokuhapuarachchi [Yahoo! News]
The Defence Secretary’s elder sibling, President Mahinda Rajapaksa was also present as Gotabhaya stated these views but maintained silence, indicating tacit consent. The fact that the Defence Secretary stated so in the presence of the Head of State, Head of Government and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces shows that the sentiments expressed were an ‘officially sanctioned unofficial policy declaration.’ So it’s unofficially official.
Calling the shots
It is also crystal clear now who calls the shots literally and metaphorically as far as war and peace is concerned. Mahinda Samarasinghe may say one thing and Rohitha Bogollagama another, but effective decisions are made and articulated elsewhere. The Minister who repeats these more lucidly than any other of his colleagues is Jeyaraj Fernandopulle.
It was only a few weeks ago that Gotabhaya Rajapaksa spoke forthrightly at a passing out parade about a proposed military advance into the LTTE held areas of the north. This was emphatically denied by some Cabinet ministers but within days the Musali region of Mannar District was taken over in a surprise manoeuvre.
If anyone thought that military operations were intended to pressurise the LTTE into coming to the negotiating table, such illusions were effectively dispelled by the Defence Secretary’s frank disclosure.
It is no longer a case of bringing the LTTE to the negotiating table through military means for a political settlement. It is now a case of destroying or diminishing the LTTE as a pre-requisite for a political solution.
There is a saying about an army marching on its stomach. The cost conscious sections of society might be appalled by the economic consequences of prosecuting a prolonged war. But Gotabhaya Rajapaksa thinks otherwise. “We cannot establish permanent peace in the country by winning only half or two-thirds of the war against terrorism,” he said in Trincomalee.
The Defence Secretary also said “President Rajapaksa cannot implement the desired political solution to the north and east conflict unless LTTE terrorism is defeated 100 percent.”
Defence Secretary’s stance
He said that President Rajapaksa, amidst the economic constraints the country is facing, has given all that is required for the security forces and the police to achieve their task of defeating LTTE terrorism.
On another occasion the Defence Secretary’s erstwhile Commanding Officer and present Army Commander Lt. Gen Sarath Fonseka was posed a question by a media person about the impact of the escalating war on the economy. “It is better to have a bankrupt country than half a country,” was the answer.
This then sums up the military mood. The military option against the LTTE will be pursued relentlessly and diligently regardless of economic or any other consequences. The defence establishment has scented blood. It wants to go in for what it perceives to be an easy kill.
The Bard of Avon wrote of a ‘tide in the affairs of men.’ The defence establishment feels that the security forces are riding the crest of a victorious anti-Tiger wave. The wave has to be ridden until the LTTE is engulfed, it is felt.
There is a frenzy of populist euphoria in the air. It is a combination of the natural and artificial, spontaneous and contrived, real and imaginary. But it is there.
It was Talleyrand I think who warned that “war is too serious a matter to be left in the hands of generals.” But currently in Sri Lanka, that is exactly what is happening. The military and defence hierarchy runs the war and makes policy. The political establishment falls in line.
Some might say this is not healthy for a country but there are few takers for this in the upper echelons of the government. A feeble opposition with an unimaginative leadership is hopelessly unable or unwilling to check this militarisation of the government. Arguably, a national security state is in formation.
[LTTE near Mukamaalai, Northern Forward Defence Line, Aug 2006 - Photo: Aruchuna]
Puzzling conduct
The behaviour and conduct of the LTTE in recent times has been, at best, puzzling. The seeming helplessness of the LTTE in the face of Colombo’s military juggernaut has contributed to this new found confidence and determination on the part of the security establishment.
The LTTE is primarily a militant movement fighting for the goal of national liberation. The government depicts it as terrorist while the LTTE self-perception is that of being freedom fighters. One man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorist.
Fighting for the lofty objective of national liberation does not automatically remove the terrorist tag if terror tactics are adopted. Likewise, the adoption of terrorist tactics does not automatically disqualify a national liberation movement. One can be both a terrorist and freedom fighter. It is not a case of one or the other.
However, realistically, these distinctions do not matter any more in an increasingly uni-polar world where there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ terrorists. No matter what the ideal is, the use of terrorist methods makes a group or an individual, terrorist. The end does not justify the means after September 11, 2001. All terrorists are ‘evil.’
There is a lot of hypocrisy and double standards here. A state is allowed to adopt all sorts of underhand methods amounting to state terrorism but it is not labelled terrorist. An air force plane can kill innocent civilians by dropping a bomb from the air and get away with it by calling it ‘collateral damage.’
But woe unto a non-state actor planting a bomb that kills civilians intentionally or unintentionally-it will be automatically labelled terrorism and very often does deserve that label. But dropping bombs from an altitude allows greater latitude in getting away from the terrorist label. All states gang up in refusing to admit state terrorism.
Defining terrorism
How does one define the LTTE? Each violent action has to be scrutinised on its own merits to arrive at a definition. The Tigers have three salient aspects when it comes to engaging in violence.
It has the attributes of a conventional militia when it adopts positional warfare. The LTTE fights like an army when it captures or defends territory. The Tigers function as a guerilla force when launching attacks against security force installations or convoys. It is a terrorist outfit whenever it kills innocent civilians through bombs or massacres and assassinates political leaders and other civilians.
Thus, the LTTE can be loosely termed as a self-styled national liberation movement that engages in terrorism at times. Each LTTE action has to be specifically classified into categories of warfare, guerilla tactics or sheer terrorism.
After the LTTE withdrew from the Eastern Province, analysts predicted that all three dimensions of the Tigers would come into play in due course.
The LTTE would engage in positional warfare and fight like a conventional army to retain northern territory. The Tigers would adopt guerilla tactics against security forces in the east. It would assassinate political leaders and destroy economic targets through terrorist methods in Colombo and elsewhere in the south, it was expected.
However, so far, no target has been attacked in Colombo or elsewhere except for the diversionary thrills of a nascent air wing dropping bombs. The limited air strikes too have stopped for some months now.
In the east some limited landmine ambushes have occurred in the Ampara and Trincomalee District jungle adjacent areas, but few attacks were reported in Batticaloa District.
Defending territory
In the north, the LTTE has been stoutly defending areas on the Vavuniya-Mannar District borders and in the Weli Oya/Manal Aaru region. It is also defending territory in the Jaffna Peninsula along the Forward Defence Lines (FDLs) of the Kilaly-Eluthumattuvaal- Nagar Kovil axis. But in the Musali region of Mannar South, the LTTE did not fire a single shot and allowed a walkover.
Even though a major offensive has not been launched by either side, there have been sporadic exchanges of artillery fire between both sides in the Vavuniya-Mannar District borders and also in the peninsula. There has also been regular aerial bombardment and strafing by the air force at positions in the Wanni. The navy too has shelled the coastal areas and also battled the Sea Tigers off the Mullaitivu coast.
It can be seen, therefore, that war related incidents have been happening since April last year. Many civilians in the Wanni have been killed, injured and displaced over the past 17 months.
Both sides are wary of the other launching an ‘invasion’ into their territory. Therefore, bombing and shelling is done by the armed forces on the one hand and shelling by the LTTE on the other to prevent major offensives. There are widely prevalent minor skirmishes. These activities are done to keep the ‘other’ side on its toes and to keep it guessing from where and when the big attack will come.
The preliminary limited strikes and offensives are no substitutes for the real McCoy. They cannot pre-empt or prevent the major offensive, counter-offensive or raid, if and when they are launched.
The armed forces can commence their ground based drives southwards from the peninsula, south-eastwards from Thallady in Mannar, northwards and north-westwards from any point along the Mannar-Vavuniya Road or from Omanthai or the Iranai Iluppaikulam Road or from Maamaduwa or the Weli-Oya/Manal Aaru region.
Sea-borne invasions across the Jaffna lagoon towards the Mannar-Poonagary coast or via the northern seas on the Mullaitivu-Chundikulam coast are also possible.
Defensive strategy
The LTTE too can commence major attacks on several possible targets. A sea-borne operation across the lagoon into the peninsula, a ground based offensive from Muhamaalai or Nagar Kovil points; attacks on army camps in Mannar, Vavuniya and Weli-Oya sector are also possible. A long shot could be incursions via jungles into Medawachchiya, Kebethigollewe, Padaviya, etc.
By all accounts the Tigers seem to be adopting a defensive strategy for now. LTTE Political Chief S.P. Tamilselvan said recently that the Tigers were maintaining “patience intentionally.” This strategy may have certain politico-military reasons.
In the first place, the LTTE is heavily disadvantaged vis-a-vis the armed forces in terms of manpower, firepower, airpower, naval power and armoured vehicle power. This places the Tigers in a very weak position.
Therefore, it would naturally be reluctant to hold on to extensive territory. The Tigers will yield some territory in order to prevent over stretching and dilution of personnel. To cite a phrase used by defence analysts, they will “trade space for time.”
What will this time be used for? Obviously, strengthening defences and recruiting cadres is one. This is happening now. But the Tigers will prolong the war in the hope that the time gained will work against Colombo. Rising defence costs will drain the Treasury and increase the cost of living and inflation. Economic problems can cause social and political unrest.
The armed forces may over extend themselves in the bid to gain more real estate. If they bite more than they can chew, the LTTE would like to make them choke.
The mounting tally of alleged human rights violations and civilian casualties caused by the armed forces can discredit the regime internationally. There may come a point where international intervention becomes inevitable.
The Tigers also expect stirrings in Tamil Nadu and related impact in New Delhi. There is also the expectation that the Tamil people in Sri Lanka and abroad will rally around the LTTE as the war escalates and civilian suffering increases.
Vital rear base
Even if the LTTE Political Commissar’s claim of exercising patience is true, the security establishment is in no mood to believe it. It will be seen as the LTTE making a virtue out of necessity as the view in defence circles is that the Tigers are weak and vulnerable. Therefore, the resolve to go on the offensive will gain strength.
However, there is a point beyond which the LTTE cannot retreat, lie low or exercise patience. This is because the Wanni heartland is, in guerilla parlance, the rear base of the LTTE. It is very vital to the Tigers that they retain control of a swathe of territory with access to the sea. The LTTE has to offer fierce resistance to preserve some territory at least.
The Tigers have strengthened defences and are ready to adopt positional warfare to defend this territory. Apparently, the Tigers have set up three ‘defence rings’-A primary outer ring around most territory under their control, a secondary inner ring around key areas in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu, and a tertiary line of defence around strategic areas of the north-eastern sector.
The fact that this primary defensive outer line has been able to prevent government incursions on the Vavuniya-Mannar borders and inside the peninsula shows the determination and grit of the LTTE to resist military advances.
Unlike what happened in the east or the peninsula when defeated, the Tigers have no place to go if the Wanni is overrun. So the Tigers, fighting a desperate battle to safeguard their rear base, will fight hard when the time comes.
The Tigers may even adopt their customary tactic of letting the enemy advance and then hit back swiftly and hard. This was well demonstrated during the conflict of the nineties.
Armed forces strategy
But the armed forces strategy devised by the Sarath-Gotabhaya duo is not likely to be a mechanical repetition of the disastrous approach under ‘Gen.’ Anuruddha Ratwatte during ‘Operation Jayasikuru’ in the nineties.
It is more likely that the government will adopt the ruthless double-track strategy adopted successfully in the east: A widespread campaign of bombing and shelling on a broad scale on points throughout the region on the one hand and on the other, a sustained campaign of intensive concentrated attacks on a limited target area.
The civilians are uprooted and their dwellings and infrastructural facilities demolished. After civilians leave a particular area and move to another place, the vacated place is shelled and bombed to saturation point. Then the army advances on ground, consolidates and establishes control of a limited area.
Thereafter, this process is repeated again and again. In a slow, systematic manner, the armed forces advance and hold target areas while the civilian population flees from place to place or to government areas. This is what happened in stages in the east and after 15 months, the armed forces dominate the province now.
Moreover, unofficial embargoes on food, medicine, fuel and essential items will be imposed as was done in the east. Transport and movement of people will be restricted. Payment of salaries of government employees, including teachers, will be suspended. Agriculture, fisheries and cottage industries will be reduced to a standstill.
If the armed forces have their way as they did in the east, this scenario is likely to happen in the north too.
This strategy will certainly cause immense hardship to the civilians. But judging from the apathy and silence of the international community towards the tragic civilian plight in the east, there seems very little chance of any foreign pressure to make Colombo call off the war or abandon its hard-line strategy.
Beginning of the end
Though Sinhala hawks would like the armed forces to go in quickly and finish off the Tigers, the defence establishment is not likely to rush in. Plans and preparations will be made carefully and cautiously.
However, it seems highly improbable that the Tigers will passively wait for the government to enfeeble, encircle and then engulf them. Contrary to optimistic assertions in Colombo, the LTTE is not both down and out. It is only down, but not fully out. Past experience has shown that the Tigers crouch to pounce.
If the armed forces succeed in dislodging the Tigers from their entrenched positions in the Wanni, it can only mean the beginning of the end. So the Tigers will fiercely resist such moves. It is a back-to-the-wall situation
This resistance is not likely to be reactive alone. There could be counter-offensives and counter-strikes that could change the situation drastically. Also, this counter-strategy need not be confined specifically to the battlefields.
Another moot point having a bearing on the war situation is the approaching ‘Maa Veerar Naal’ (Great Heroes’ Day) on November 27. What will Prabhakaran say on that day? Conversely, what will the armed forces allow him to say on that day?
Whatever the situation, full-scale war seems inevitable and imminent. Even the raging monsoon rains may not be able to deter its pace or intensity.
The fluctuating fortunes of war may be fickle and fluid. But one thing is certain. The civilians are going to suffer. The misery of the east will be repeated in the north. The tragic plight of recently displaced Tamils and Muslims from Mannar South is a sad pointer of things to come in this respect.
Entry Filed under: transCurrents
46 Comments Add your own
1. Chennai_Analyst | September 23rd, 2007 at 12:23 am
A good article by DBS Annai! We in Tamilnad are appalled by the loss of life and suffering of the Tamils! What the hell is going on? The Tamils as a race are being wiped out slowly day by day! If Tigers cannot protect Tamils they should let the population go to the SL Govt. side where they will atleast get some food to eat.
There are many many Tamils in TamilNad eagerly waiting for the next SLA vs. Puligal confrontations and see how Puligal respond! We are all puzzled; Will they really do respond is the big question?. We are puzzled by the inability of the Tigers to fight. It has been more talk and bluster than any real victories for the Tigers! They have lost the whole East, now Silvatturai and the Mannar springboard; 9 out of 10 ships are gone! Is it curtains for the Tigers??? Have they lost their planes? Have they lost their fuel supplies? Is Soosai really out of the picture?
Was is the work of Indian Ships and Submarines in locating the Tiger ships??? It had to be! After all stupid Hindians are providing Radars, Ships and Ammo to the Singhalas!
Havent the Tamils suffered enough??? Praba should opt for peace talks! Better to see that atleast some Tamils are saved from utter ruin! We can only hope he acts with some realism!
2. Tamil Friend | September 23rd, 2007 at 1:13 am
This story is true to a certail extent. But the writer does not want to say that the armed forces are in capable of grabing the land. Further he does not want to say that tamils are oposing LTTE to a great extent. Tamils living in Colombo (50% of the colombo city population does not have any problem but no Sinhalese could go to nothern part of the country. We have to accept that. What I beleave is that these letters will ignite the problem rather than calming it down. We should stop this war business.
3. Kanna | September 23rd, 2007 at 1:34 am
“However, it seems highly improbable that the Tigers will passively wait for the government to enfeeble, encircle and then engulf them. Contrary to optimistic assertions in Colombo, the LTTE is not both down and out. It is only down, but not fully out. Past experience has shown that the Tigers crouch to pounce.”
D.B.S. has beautifully borught out the situation in this article. silence does not mean that we are weak. It is only a retreat for us to have fresh start to stike our opposing force.
4. Kannan Saravanan | September 23rd, 2007 at 2:01 am
I tend to believe that the death knell for the regime of Mahinda & Co. is going to start to sound pretty soon.
The LTTE is primarily a militant movement fighting for the goal of national liberation. Anyone can depict it as a terrorist entity while the perception of Tamils with Tamil Nationalist feelings is that of being freedom fighters. I myself consider them as our freedom fighters. One man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorist.
The LTTE is fighting for the lofty objective with conciously superior, in other word, noble ideals. But Mahinda & Co. are adapting a LOPSOD policy. [LOPSOD stands for "Long On Promises, Short On Delivery"]. We, the Tamils are adapting a LALL policy.
[LALL stands for "Live And Let Live"]. Things would have unfolded differently if the LTTE had not been patience intentionally.
Hail to the heroes ascended to Heaven,
traitors and tyrants now fight them in vain,
mingling with God they can plan for their brethern,
Death cannot conquer the heroes again!
‘Maa Veerar Naal’ (Great Heroes’ Day) is on November 27. I hope Mahinda & Co. will be taught a good lesson before that day.
5. Anonymous | September 23rd, 2007 at 3:44 am
Hello DBS
It is happenning as you and india wished for a long time. I advise you to change your religion and mother tongue to Sinhala or English. Tamils are not allowed to live in Sri Lanka since they are froeign invaders.
Once the war is over, Sri Lanka will compete with india and China for economic power. Sri Lanka will become the economic centre of southeast asia.
Thank you for your help
6. Sadhatissa | September 23rd, 2007 at 4:56 am
Mr Jayaraj is nothing more than an apologist of a murderous racist movement. Bogus claims against the government only extends the suffering of the people in the North. The East is free. That means soon they will be able to vote for their representatives in parliament.
Mt Jayaraj’s friends in the LTTE are fascists who will murder anyone who opposes them – Not much liberation there! Sadly, Tamil chauvinism is at the heart of this mans foolish prattle.
7. DARAN | September 23rd, 2007 at 8:30 am
As we all know, Mr. D.B.S. Jayaraj is a veteran journalist and can be easily referred to as one of the renowned investigative journalists in Sri Lanka. I have been reading his columns from his time with “The Island”, an English Daily published in Sri Lanka.
However, his reference to LTTE as being “down, but not out” should be taken with a grind of salt, as he is also one of the fiercest opponents of LTTE (due to unknown reasons).
We all know what late Athulath Mudali said when he was first appointed as Minister of National Security. Late Mr. Gamini Dissanayake said in the opening ceremony of Victoria Dam in Kanday, in front of the then president of the country that the “Tigers” will be in the “cage” within next two years. How many two years have gone by now? We have heard such roars from so many hawkish lions, but where are they now? We can name a few such lions; “Bull Weeratunge, Brigadier Densil Kobbekaduwa, Former Defense Minister Ratwatte and so on.
So, Mr. Jayaraj, I do not even agree to your assertion that the LTTE is down. And, you go on to say that what our Leader to say on this year’s martyr’s day (IF THE SINHALESE FORCES ALLOW HIM TO DO SO). This clearly shows what you are dreaming of.
Let’s wait and see what will happen.
8. Zorass | September 23rd, 2007 at 8:30 am
Not only LTTE and SL Armed Foces are terrorists – 99% of people are terrorists. If the killing of innocent by your side is not so serious or significant as killing of innocent by the opposite side you are no different from a terrorist. If the death of an unarmed innocent evokes emotion based on ethnicity then we all are part of the problem.
This writer attempts to clean up LTTE terrorist image by arguing that:
1/ It is common or narural for a liberation movement to adopt killing of innocent as a major tactical weapon
2/ SL Armed Forces do the same.
Let us define terrorism clearly and oppose it with all our moral might .
Let us stop killings first and then look for a political solution.
It is the Tamil intelligentsia who can force LTTE for a meaningful ceasefire. Dear Tamil brothers and sisters, ask yourself who continued the killing spree after the signing of CFA.
ZRS
9. EEroppe Sinhaya | September 23rd, 2007 at 8:40 am
Wake up Jeyaraj it’s over.!!
EEroppe Sinhaya
10. A.Rajasingam | September 23rd, 2007 at 9:52 am
DBS has clearly outlined the drastic consequences of the Military ongoing successful advancement. The Defense Secretary is keen to regain the pride it lost at Muhamalai several times not matter what the outcome is. No doubt innocent civilians will have to suffer. Everything depends on how the government will react after successfully conquers the tiger-controlled areas. If the Sri Lankan Armed Forces conquer it will be a question of complete ravaging of the Tamil areas and the question of bringing the LTTE is completely out. The LTTE too would not appear. It is at this juncture the fate of Hitler, Mussolini and Pol Pot should recalled. However, one should not forget when Germany and Japan were reduced to ashes they bounced back and today they are dictating terms on other countries on the economic field. So the question is who will have to suffer eventually. It may take time. The reason is the Tamils have firmly established in foreign countries and there is a possibility to dictate terms on the maligned economic policy of the Sri Lanka government through various sources. On the other hand the Tamils are hard working people like the Germans and Japanese.
Further the blind policy of the Sri Lankan government in denouncing federalism as the cure for Sri Lanka’s illness have antagonized the western democratic countries including India. In addition, the reckless disregard of the Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord and the de-merger of the North-East Province and the foreign policy of leaning towards Pakistan and China are not promising. These factors can be instrumental for sudden turn of events. For example after the Vadamaradchy operation no one expected the dropping of food parcels in Jaffna by the Indian Planes and the presence of the IPKF. Unfortunately the LTTE and Premadasa failed to co-operate with India. I call this a missed opportunity of the Tamils. Further the LTTE failed to command the respect, confidence and trust of a section of the Tamil community especially the academics, professionals and some government servants.
Further no one knows the actual capability of the LTTE. As DBS correctly said the LTTE can adopt to various tactics. It is true that the split in the LTTE has caused disastrous set back. However the possibility that the Sri Lankan Forces are being led into a trap cannot be ruled out. Though the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi still lingers on the Indians, it is also questionable whether India will interfere itself or tolerate any military operation in Jaffna in the light of the foreign policy of Sri Lanka and of the feelings of Tamil Nadu in general.
11. Ram Raj | September 23rd, 2007 at 10:41 am
Recent private servay shows 84% of people in the south agree for a military solution to crush our fighters.The recent military victories over us by GOSL has motivated the south.I blame all these on the leadership.We are not fighting as one.First Murali left the cause now we got a whopping in the east & in the sea.We like to see our hard earned money put to some use rather than waste it on luxary living by the top
12. easterntamil | September 23rd, 2007 at 11:04 am
This writer is trying to give some saline to tiger outfit or trying to whitewash them.
It is so pathetic that he cannot see the reality . Does not he see what happened from Mavil Aru to Thoppigala?
13. easterntamil | September 23rd, 2007 at 11:39 am
tamil tigers – i dont belive that there true fighters ,but there good in finding weekness ,that makes the different , i realy dont belive that tamils having prolems with any srilanken , that has been prove ,example colombo full of ethnic city, so why this problems so dragging answer economic factors ,whos responsible ???????
14. thiaga | September 23rd, 2007 at 11:55 am
The only trump the stupid Rajapaksa clan to stay in power is to beat the war drums and some modayas will dance to the tune like the one who dream of Sri Lanka competing with India and China.
If the past rulers of Lanka had any sense like Lee Kuan Yew of S’pore then this country could have been prosperous.
We will soon see this murderous regime that LTTE helped to vote into power.
15. ltte | September 23rd, 2007 at 12:37 pm
DBS, That’s makes you an uloyal piece of garbage. Haven’t you had enough broken bones your body?
16. Jeronimo Azavedo | September 23rd, 2007 at 6:05 pm
War in the North started quite awhile ago and the army has been raiding the North with small units for several months now.
The LTTE is keeping quiet about it because it does not want the Tamils to know the ground situation.
The Government is keeping quiet about it because they want to maintain that they are not fighting in the North as yet for the benefit of the international community.
Even at this moment there are several hundred Sri Lankan special forces operating behind LTTE lines.
Whom do you think is directing the air strikes?
The LTTE is having difficulty even supplying their front lines.
17. excel | September 23rd, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Well said DBS. The SL Govt is also a Terrorist. But unfortunately Nobody sees it that way. The world is blind when it comes to that.The freedom fighters need to
be tactful to get their objectives.
18. Thamarai | September 23rd, 2007 at 8:29 pm
Hi DBS,
We all hope and pray that, if such an operation takes place, India will not make the same mistake it made in 1987. Had India not helped the LTTE in 1987 there would have been some solution at this time. Is’nt it Sir?
19. Gajan | September 23rd, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Only time will tell. Tamils had suffered a lot. So, I hope something happen soon.
20. jayam | September 23rd, 2007 at 11:09 pm
Mr.Thamarai’s comment was 100% correct.. When the Indian army came the tamils were garlenting them. When they were leaving they were throwing stones. Now the tamils are begging and India says kiss my ass. What goes around comes around. Tamils don’t have a clear path. Tamils need to change their attitude and it will take atleast 25 to 50 years.
21. Gamini | September 23rd, 2007 at 11:14 pm
DBS just as you cant be half pregnant you cant be partially a terrorist group partially freedom fighter. The LTTE lost the right to be classed as freedom fighters when they started targetting the innocent (of all factions) through suicide bombings and targetted killings.
22. Handy | September 24th, 2007 at 1:25 am
If tLTTE is defeated.That would ethe endof the “TAMIL RACE” in SL.
with the fall of LTTE jaffna would become YAPANA PATTUNA and TRINCO would become TRIGANAMALAYA.
For this reason alone, we pray for the LTTE to win
23. thiaga | September 24th, 2007 at 7:04 am
LTTE is ruled by bunch of thugs same as the GOSL. They believe only in brute force like the one who wrote above ( ltte ) who only know to how to break bones. They are still evolving out of their mamallian brains. It seems peace has to be imposed rather then negotiated. Time will tell.
24. Sri Lanka | September 24th, 2007 at 8:31 am
SRI LANKA is the acronym of
Sinhala Race In Land Acquired Notwithstanding
Karuna Amman
25. Eelam | September 24th, 2007 at 9:02 am
Ceylon is the tamil homeland. What LTTE and DBS fighting for is our homeland. LTTE fights with gun and DBS fights with the pen. Yes, two different approaches but same goal. Must use the stupid sinhalese regime for their own demise. It is like we DBS using sinhalese to protect himself from sinhalese and LTTE getting chopper rides from Lankan airforce. Colombo should be the caplital of greater tamil eelam which includes ceylon and tamilnadu.
26. Thamil Annpan | September 24th, 2007 at 10:56 am
» 1987: Attack on IPKF
» 1993: Poonery Attack
» 1996: Unceasing Wave 1
» 1997: Vavunathivu Camp Overrun
» 1998: Unceasing Wave 2
» 1999: Unceasing Wave 3
» 2001: Katunayake Air Port Attack
Stupid Sinhalese will never learn. Wait just 3 more weeks.
27. Thamilan | September 24th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
It is pathetic that the Sinhalese are throwing in stories that Ravana was a Sinhalese King becuase he fought against the invasion of Rama the Indian King. Sinhalese cannot prove thier history that they were there before the Tamils. They cannot prove thier theory of where the Sinhalese language orginated and cannot deny that it was developed from Tamil. What makes them claim that the island is thier right?
LTTE started fighting for basic rights, turned into a Tamil nationlistic struggle and its only going to get even bigger. Next level will not be about the merger of the Northern and Eastern province but it will be about the merger of Tamil Elam and Tamil Nadu.
I favor the merger of Tamil Elam & Tamil Nadu and the pull out of Tamil Nadu from the Indian Union to create the Tamil Nation that majority of Tamils are looking toward.
Sinhalese are just feeding the LTTE, they still cannot understand that violence only hardens and makes thier call for the need of a Tamil Nation to be heard even louder then before.
If LTTE carves out a Tamil Nation by force, the future generation of that Tamil Nation will oppress the Sinhalese nation by all directions. If LTTE carves out (by force) a Tamil Nation by merging Tamil Nadu and Tamil Elam, the destruction of the Sinhalese nation is inevitable.
The only solution the Sinhalese have is to stop feeding the Tigers by pulling out the SLAF and recognize Tamil Elam as a neighbour and work toward reconciliation and heal the wound that was inflicted by racist Sinhalese politicians.
If not, LTTE will force a solution which would be oppression or destruction of the Sinhalese nation.
When the Indian subcontinent demanded for self-rule the British thought they could crush it, which they did and eventually they realized force was no use and gave up.
If the estimated 15 million Sinhalese think they can crush the estimated 3 million Tamils by military force and the rest of the estimated 70 million Tamils will just stand by to watch them, then the Sinhalese are clearly living in a fantasy island.
28. RajasH | September 24th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
DBS asks “How does one define LTTE”?
after all these years?
should the question be “How does one define LTTE’s stance in the light of the string of GOSL military successes.?”
DBS is a smart
29. ernest macintyre | September 24th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Because our life spans are seventy, more or less ,we tend to project into history the measly portion we can experience.
Take up a history book and you will see that the Tamil /Sinhalese see saw provides meaningful graphs only in millennia or half millennia spread sheets
So, cool off boys. Cool off.
30. Thamarai | September 24th, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Handy Mahattaya
If Tamils can live happily in Moratuwa, Negombo, Wallawatte etc. why they cannot live in Yapana Pattunaa??
31. Mathan | September 25th, 2007 at 6:51 am
Only fools to believe sinhala regimes “freeing Tamil” from east and north.
those who believe sinhala regimes should ask one questions. Jaffna was freed from Tigers 20 years ago?
are they any economic development?
do the people live freely? there are deaths and distruction everyday people are killed by armforces everyday.
recently mahinda called for international assistance to rebuild east some foreign ambasidors went and had a tea, those fool ambasidors should have asked first what was done in jaffna in 20 years? it was in CFA tamil invested some money and the economy was slightly developed. nothing from government.
even today fishing ban 25%of jaffna is high security zone.
east is same story.
north war is imminant but at the same time srilanka will sink like never before.
tamil dispora will continue to support tigers anyway they can , tamil dipora is 25 times financially well off than 20 years ago. it is begining of the end to srilanka.
and birth of tamil eelam.
32. Mathan | September 25th, 2007 at 6:54 am
here is freed jaffna 20 years ago (under occupational sinhala forces)
Mentally Retarded Beggars-Jaffna Perspective
September 24, 2007 at 3:22 pm · Categories: Jaffna, Human Rights, Peace and Conflict, English | by CHA Distrcit Office Trinco
Peace and normalcy are two essential or even sole ingredients for individual and family happiness and community development. Conflicts and commotions, social upheavals and political unrest denial of equal opportunities and inequality, suppression or oppression of one community over other are some of the dangerous social evils that barricade the social, economic and cultural development of nations. Further if this situation is to persist for long, it severely affects the mental and physical activities of the entire communities.
Before the out break of the current internal strife, more than two decades ago, there was comparatively peace and normalcy, leaving aside the peaceful political agitations. We have witnessed a wider window of openings for social, cultural and religion activities which promoted a healthy and happy community life. Social events, non political debates, honoring of outstanding personalities and religious leaders, temple festivals, multi religious festivals both at domestic and community levels, and various regional and community level functions provided a healthy atmosphere.
Contrary to this state of activities, we presently witness a situation of notable degeneration of most of these functions in Jaffna. People confine to their homes by 6 or 7pm due to curfew, no social visits as this is feasible only in the evenings, very minimal cultural and social events and curtailed religious activities. For example August and September are months of important religious festivals in most of the popular temples where people gather in thousands and thousands from all parts of the peninsula. But today not only festival hours are restricted or curtailed to wind up before curfew hours, security checking, traveling difficulties and related constraints compel the people to shun those activities and compel them to confine to their houses early
The result in physical and mental degradation affect them both mentally and physically, Psycho-social projects of some of the Non-Governmental Organization and also at state health centre do not prove an adequate panacea for these illness.
Economically we have already become a community of beggars and present situation is making us a community of mentally retarded beggars.
33. Mathan | September 25th, 2007 at 6:59 am
this is the state of tamil people under sinhala regime.
34. chandrabosh | September 25th, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Hi DBS,
have you ever given thought to what will happen to the foreign aid to LTTE coming in the form of forced donations from other countries if ever LTTE start disappearing?
I think the collectors will start vanishing with lot of money thay have collected.Even now its start happening after what happen to KP.Once this is started VP will starve to death.
We could see the downfall of LTTE if there is no major victories over GOSL over the next two to three months.
35. Sinha | September 26th, 2007 at 1:13 am
This is the state of people when,
1. Fighting against a elected government/s
2. use of violence -extreme terrorism- against common people-either Sinhalese, Muslims or Tamils or even Hindu (in India-Gandhi)
3. Using pregnant mothers and innocent teens/children/ladies as ‘living vehicles’ to transport Bombs and other illegal vepons
4. “blindly’ or ‘fearfully’ supporting for feeding and well being of ‘Prabahkaran and mad gang’
And not come in to negotiation at the parliament / judiciary / peace process if and when having problems to solve.
Who should be responsible!!!!
36. Thamilan | September 26th, 2007 at 8:07 am
One thing is for sure, the Sinhalese are bent on destroying the Sinhalese Nation even before the announcement of the Independent Tamil Elam.
37. Thamilan | September 26th, 2007 at 8:17 am
Comment # 30,
Have you checked how many Tamil lives were brutally taken by Sinhalese during 1983 in Moratuwa, Negombo, Wallawatte etc?
While you are at this topic, also check how many of those who committed the crime in 1983 were brought to justice.
Once Tamil Elam is declared and Sri Lanka fails to bring those scoundrels to justice then it will be pay back time.
The amount of money the Tamil Dispora community will pour into Tamil Elam will be at an unimaginable scale to the Sinhalese.
38. A.Rajasingam | September 26th, 2007 at 8:31 am
Though the explosion of war in the North seems to be imminent, international community and especially India still do not believe in the leadership of the LTTE taking into account of the past misdeeds of the LTTE. Likewise the Sri Lankan Army may be interested in waging a war but the outcome of it may call for economic sanction on Sri Lanka by the Western world. Not only it will affect the people of Jaffna, but also the Sinhalese especially Colombo will be targeted.
39. Mathuran .M Canada | September 26th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Well Done Mr D.B.S. Jeyaraj
Nice article ,
Comment by Thamil Annpan said wait until 3 weeks if so, Praba going to declare Tamil Eelam or did he going to anounce any solution for Tamil peoble. Only they can kill some SL army, other than that nothing is going to happen, How many Nov 27 passed ,any thing happend tamil peoble.Please leave rest of tamils live peacefully.
40. veerakathi | September 26th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
With Out A Tamil Army, Tamils have Nothing
o There is widespread racism and state terror that has been directed at the Tamil people since Ceylon gained independence from Britain in 1948.
o The Sinhalese came to Sri Lanka about 2500 years back and claim to be Aryan race, which is a bunch of crap
o Tamils have been living in Sri Lanka for more than 30,000 years and called it Ellam.
o In 1769 the British arrived and absorber the Island of Ceylon into its huge empire.
o Before Portugese, Dutch & British came, there were three Kingdoms in Ceylon, Tamil kingdoms in North and East, one Sinhalese kingdom in Hill Country and one in Costal areas of Ceylon.
o British centralised all powers in Capital Colombo for administrative purpose , unified the whole country by amalgamating three Kingdoms into one Country and brought large amount of Tamil Labours from India to Build Tea estates and these Tamils built the national economy and earn highest amount Foreign exchange today ( US $ 900 Millon per year )
o When British left in 1947, they handed over centralised power in Colombo to Sinhalese and the first Sinhalese majority parliament stripped, (which consisted of Racist like DS Senanayaka, SWRD Bandaranayaka & JR Jeyawardena,) one million tea estate Tamils in the central hill country of their citizenship and right to vote, because they voted against the ruling party and happened to be Tamils.
o The third parliament of Ceylon in 1n 1956, under the leadership of SWRD Bandaranayaka and with the support of UNP, made Sinhalese the only official language and as a consequence large number of Tamils lost their job opportunities. LSSP leader Colvin R De Silva warned one language, two countries, two languages, one country.
o During nineteen seventies the Government of Srimao Bandaranayaka, with the support of Badudeen Mohammed, NM Perera, Peter Kennaman & Colvin R De Silva implemented the standardisation policy where Tamil student have to get much more marks to enter university, irrespective of their merit, and abolished the Constitution Drafted by Last British Governor and deleted the protection given to Tamils under that Constitution and these act angered moderate Tamil Politicians and young Tamil students and provided a strong motivation to start armed struggle, another foolish act of Sindhalese
o Major Sinhalese political parties and Majority of the Buddhist Monks are totally racist and anti Tamil.
o In July 1983 the Sinhalese thugs aided, supported and encouraged by Sinhalese politicians, Buddhist monks and Sinhalese army and police killed thousands of Innocent Tamils, burned down their houses, business premises, medical clinics and lawyers offices and ganged raped Tamils girls and this is known as ? July Holocaust? or ? Black July? .
o The Tamil armed struggle gathered momentum after this foolish act of Sinhalese and resulted in the development of present day Tamil Army known as ?Tamils Tigers?
o Some feel that creation of a Tamil Federal state or a Scottish style Tamil Parliament will bring peace; this solution will not work, because this type of political system to work, the central government should be trust worthy and Tamils have no trust in Sinhalese central government or Sinhalese politicians. They cannot be trusted, because Sri Lankan army, police and state machinery is one hundred percent Sinhalese.
o The only option for Tamils to fight Sinhalese state terrorism is to create their own state which existed before Portugese, Dutch and British came to Colonise Ceylon ? Sri Lanka.
o WITH OUT A TAMIL ARMY TAMILS HAVE NOTHING ? POLITICAL POWER GROWS OUT OF BARREL OF GUN – ARMY IS HE CHIFE COMPONENT OF STATE POWER ?
o The ?Tigers? control their own territory and run it like a totalitarian dictatorship now, after winning an independent state for Tamils, they have to grant democracy to all people, otherwise Tamil people will revolt
o Tamil Army is a militant army with a cause, to disarm them is impossible and no army can fight them forever.
o The ?war on terror after 9/11? has been used by Sri Lankan States (past & present) to suppress Tamils and opposition descendants and get plenty of foreign aid from US, Canada, Australia, Pakistan, China and Israel. Tamils and their Tamil Army are not terrorist, but freedom fighters. The Sinhalese and International media describes the entire Tamil people as terrorist and remain silent about Sri Lanka state terrorism for the benefit of their Geopolitical agendas.
o FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL IS A FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN RIGHT.
41. H.ram | September 26th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Many analysts said mnay in the past. but what happen is in histrory. Elephant pass is a clasical example of LTTE’s ability. Many american generals applaud the defense of Elephantpass garrison at that time. However the deploymnet of LTTE in Kudarappu made another history.Thats all
42. TNTamil | September 28th, 2007 at 11:41 am
LTTE is following the tactics of the Eritrean rebels.
“In 1985, Eritrean elite commandos infiltrated the Ethiopian and Soviet held air force base in Asmara and destroyed all 30 fighter jets there, suffering only one casualty. In 1988 during a massive Ethiopian military offensive against Eritrean rebels, a third of the Ethiopian army was annihilated in the northern Eritrean town of Afabet.”
The LTTE destroyed GOSL jets using the same method in 2001. The next step to be emulated is to take out at least 1/3 rd of the Lankan army. The GOSL sadists will send in their soliders into the LTTE held North and see them get routed.
43. shan | September 28th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
hats off to DBS. keep up the good work at last we all tamils can go to jaffna to see our homes without paying any money to LTTE like most tamils go to colombo but afraid to go to east or north because of the thug phraba or karuna only time will tell we hope all humans can move freely without dictators.
44. Zona | September 29th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
How can any one believe the Sri Lankan government’s claims of destroying many LTTE boats on a daily basis and killing about 10LTTE fighters a day. Is there freedom in the press in Sri Lanka. If one were to take count of the defence.lk’s reports, I think LTTE will be having the biggest navy and the largest army in the world.
All this bravado is fine, when the war breaks out, as its believe to happen anytime, let us see how the SLA performs. The Sri Lankan people will face the consequences of “It is better to have a bankrupt country than half a country” It wont affect the person who said it, but it sure will affect the common man already reeling under a valueless currency. It can also make the country more backward that it already is.
45. siva | September 30th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
Tigers lost credibility in many aras due to their brutal killings of unarmed civilians or leaders. Tamils are the easy prey for LTTE.
If the LTTE really interested in POLITICS, Tamils need a political manifesto from LTTE.
Paraman Kanagaratnam alias Thamil Chelvan or Rasiah Ilanthirayan is not capable of thinking any politics because of their academic credentials are very poor.
I found Thamil Chelvan make statements whenever NORDIC monitors go to Kilinochchi.
Now he tells they keep patience. This prove that LTTE is not prepared for a BIG scale war.
Chances are looming for over running of North by government forces. Tigers cannot stand against a full scale of war like in EAST.
46. Thamilan | October 12th, 2007 at 8:15 am
Comment 45,
They have a manifesto: get the Tamils out of the clutches of the Sinhalese. They been doing that and if you can’t understand that, I am sorry you are just blinded by your stupidity.
Remember it’s a militant organization, they are not there to give fancy speeches and make promises that they cannot deliver or to get votes. They are there to get the freedom for Tamils at any cost (every year it is becoming an inevitable reality, they have everything that a state requires and they started with rusty pistols bought from their piggy banks). If you ask for a clear political manifesto after the creation of Tamil Eelam from the LTTE then you have a valid point.
Thamil Chelvan or Rasiah Illanthirayan, they have credentials in what they are doing and you have no need to worry about it. I do agree that they never set in a class room learning about it, but they have the years long and reality experience of the politics (I am sure they don’t read BBC like you and me to base their political moves, they probably have spies and direct information sources).
I am guessing you are one of those idiots who would hire a person who have a piece of paper saying that they studied instead of hiring a guy who has actual experience.
Thamil Chelvan is assigned for political purpose, his statements do not reflect the actual strength of the LTTE, which no one knows about even today (every time the Sinhalese thought they were weak, they ended up getting bloody nose and the problem is yet to be solved).
Your so called leaders being killed by LTTE (not all of them) are people who lick the boots of the Sinhalese. Civilians who are being killed by LTTE, what proof do you have to make a statement like that? The government is doing it on a massive scale and they don’t even try to hide it or deny it, it’s called an open genocidal program to eradicate Tamils of the island eventually.
Siva, I am sorry if you are one of those people who went in front of LTTE acting like a moron when they put their whole life in re-achieving something that Tamils once cherished.
What is your academic credential to critique the LTTE and to bring a reasonable solution to the Tamils?
Remember, a Dog (keep barking that we need a political solution) cannot do what a Tiger could do.
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