One step forward, two steps back.
October 10th, 2007
by Pradeep Peiris & Anupama M. Ranawana
Ranil Wickremasinghe has been labelled as the United National Party’s most unsuccessful leader to date. Whether you agree with this statement or not, it is a solid fact that this gentleman has lost a total of twelve elections during his tenure as UNP chief. Mrs. Kumaratunge probably felt rather blessed to have him as opposition leader during her presidential years, but her ex-colleague Mahinda Rajapakse seems to have benefited the most from Wickremasinghe, as the latter’s track record as opposition leader is currently at its worst point. Not only was he unable to portray the image of an aggressive opponent, but he has also had no luck picking the right and timely issue against the government, wasting time playing petty politics with Bhikkus and Benz cars and so on. With Mangala Samaraweera’s defection, Wickremasinghe is now attempting to create a unified opposition under the umbrella of the Jathika Sabhava. As a step towards this he recently announced his abandonment of the federal proposal. And once again, things backfire.
History does, after all, repeat
Those who have some understanding of the nation’s post independence political history will be familiar with both the Bandaranaike-Chelvanayagam Pact of 1957 and the Dudley -Chelvanayagam Pact of 1965, two events which show that even in the early stages of nation building, even those parties that held the majority were unable to stand strong in the presence of extremist outcry. If one looks at recent political history, one recalls a courageous and progressive Constitutional document that was drafted between the years of 1997 and 2000 by such eminent persons as G.L Peiris and Neelan Thiruchelvam. These three great years of work went to waste when the Kumaratunge government found it difficult to defend this document and stand up to extreme pressure from Sinhala Buddhist chauvinists. The only difference is that in the previous instances it was the nation’s leader who gave into nationalist voices but Wickramasinghe decided to drop what he advocated while being the opposition leader.
[Ranil Wickremasinghe, UNP Leader]
Thereby, Wickremasinghe’s latest detour once again confirms the fact that any strong policy stand taken by x, y or z party will not be advocated for long as it is soon weakened by stronger political voices. Cowed down by chauvinistic uproar, Wickremasinghe now changes track, opting for an idea that he hopes will win him stronger support. And perhaps, he has. Some of the remarks made by JVP firebrands like Lalkantha and Aruna Dissanayake seem to suggest that the JVP and UNP are now embarking on an intricate rite of courtship; attacking, opposing but intending eventually to seduce each other. Indeed, the latest moves made by the UNP certainly seem to have been made with the specific aim of avoiding any untoward JVP criticism. With the betrayal and defection of eighteen of his own parties and someone the verge of sliding out Wickramasinghe may not see any other feasible option before him other than bringing about a marriage of ‘untrue minds.’ On the other hand, however, Rajapakse and his band of brothers have managed to set a strong agenda for war that is largely rhetorical and somehow distracts the potential for public uproar at the present economic situation. Wickremasinghe is possibly of the sentiment that an entirely anti-governmental stance would be one that is completely unheard and uncared for. Adding his voice to the majority allows, he may hope, for him to have a place on the nation’s dance card.
Dropping that “F” word.
However, the present UNP policy change seems to suggest that the UNP and its leadership has succumbed to a kind of defeatist syndrome, in a continuation of the UNP’s recent attitude where it sets its own goals and agendas according to those taken by other parties. It is interesting to inquire into whether the policy changes were a result of the conviction of the leadership or a tactical move that deviates quite sharply from the party’s true ideology. Perhaps the junior members of the party may not been fully convinced on the power sharing model but we can be assured that Wickremasinghe believed in it and advocated strongly for it. In fact, to some extent he sacrificed his political career for it. Knowing very well that it was not a popular idea, he still stood by a move towards power sharing during a period when the LTTE shamelessly violated the Cease Fire Agreement, thereby placing a blot on Wickremasinghe’s political career. Hence, it is rational to conclude that the UNP’s latest policy change is completely tactical.
- What will he gain?
So let us ponder whether this strategic move will yield anything of value to the United National Party. Firstly, will the party achieve any substantial electoral gain from making this policy change? If one looks at past election results, and here I refer to the 2005 polls, where the UNP won substantial majorities in eleven out of twenty two districts.
For instance, in Nuwara-Eliya, the UNP won over seventy per cent of the vote, while losing Hambantota to the UPFA by only 28.2 points. The results from the North and East show that if Mr. Pirabakaran did not obstruct Tamil participation in the 2005 election, Wickramasinghe would have received an overwhelming majority of the total votes. The explosive speeches of Wimal Weerawansa kept Wickremasinghe behind Rajapakse by only 2% of the vote. The JVP repeatedly claims that Ranil’s 2005 defeat in the presidential poll shows a strong public mandate against power sharing. If this is the case, then the UNP should consider the 48.43% of the vote they received as an indicator that the general public are at least willing to tolerate the federalism. One can conclude from this that Ranil did not lose the presidential battle due to his firm stand on federalism and he will not win future elections just for dropping this policy stand.
According to Social Indicator’s 2005 pre-election survey report, the public placed more trust in Ranil than in Mahinda by 6 and 2 points based on each leaders ability to handle the peace process and the Cost of Living. Where Ranil fell short was in his ability to safeguard religious and cultural values. Mahinda beat Ranil only by 2 points in his capability of protecting the country. This shows that the people have appreciated Ranil’s commitment to solving the country’s ethnic conflict and stabilize the country’s economy. Therefore Ranil should be satisfied with the reception he has received for his policies, even if their content were a far cry from popular chauvinistic thought. So, Ranil should stick to what he is qualified to do instead of trying to preach a new version of the ‘ariastangika margaya’ for which the JHU holds the copyright.
If the UNP expect to win the hearts of the ‘JVP sahodorayo’ by dropping the Federal Idea, they are certainly dreaming. There are many considerable differences between the two parties which will place heavy obstacles in the path of any political coalition. Unless the JVP suffers from an internal split based on the present debate on whether to support Mahinda or not, it is completely irrational to expect an alliance between the UNP and the JVP. Even if such miracles come to pass, the UNP would only increase their electoral votes by a mere 10%. Hence, it would be more rational to make an effort to woo the SLFPers as crossovers usually take place between the two main parties than with small parties like the JVP that cater to specific niches of society. At the same time, the UNP would be wrong to spend time hunting any JHU votes. We make this argument for the simple reason that those persons who presently vote for the JHU come from a traditional UNP voter base. Unless the JHU is able to drum up another religious conspiracy, it is hard to believe that these monks will be blessed with more than one seat.
Conclusion
Ranil’s latest ‘tactical move’ shows his utter inability to understand his own constituencies. Perhaps it is a symptom of the UNP’s current defeatist syndrome, but does not change the fact that the UNP should have thought more about making a worthwhile strategic move instead of simply giving in to popular thought.
What pushed us to write this article is the damage we see that the UNP’s policy shift will have on the future of this country. Since independence, our majoritarian electoral process has obstructed the creation of a national identity amongst the many communities who share this small island. Time and again, the Sinhala community has violently resisted any move to share power with their Tamil and Muslim counterparts. Every attempt towards creating a consensual democratic process in the country has failed completely, legitimizing violent struggle, not democratic deliberation. Mr. Wickremasinghe’s eloquence and seemingly erudite nature made one believe that he was the one political leader who we could count on to truly solve the conflict through a power sharing arrangement. But he too, fails us. He, like many of his predecessors, chooses the easy route and weakens against the pressure of mounting Sinhala extremism. In order that he does not lose face, he denies that he has made any policy change stating that he is simply dropping the unpopular term ‘federalism’. According to his latest press conference he says that his party continues to opt for a ‘meaningful” power sharing arrangement. “Meaningful” power sharing carries with it any number of connotations, subject, of course, to personal interpretation. Ironically, Wickramasinghe begins to sound like the current incumbent, hiding behind terms and playing with words without giving them any substantiation. One should not be surprised if Wickremasinghe’s ‘meaningful’ sharing of power one day translates to nothing more than the decentralization of power.
Entry Filed under: transCurrents NewsFeatures
13 Comments Add your own
1. A.Rajasingam | October 11th, 2007 at 7:57 am
The writers were perfectly correct that if Ranil continues with this change of words, it would be a case of an unfinished syndrome.
However, it is a fact, that there is a difference between the situations prior to mid-2004 and after 2004. The sentiments of the Sinhalese should also be taken into account. However, the dissolving of the Parliament by Chandrika after a short period of signing of the CFA and the dirty tactics of Mahinda together with the adamant attitude of the LTTE paved for the frustration of Ranil. One should not forget that the Eastern Province voted heavily for Ranil while the Northern Province was threatened by the LTTE not to vote for Ranil except the soldiers at Palaly. This was very clearly seen in the last Presidential election. In addition, the JVP resorted to another dirty tactics of not registering a large number of votes in the Colombo District. Briefly the Tamil votes were chopped deliberately by these three elements. All these factors contributed to Ranil’s defeat.
No one can deny this truth. Otherwise Ranil would have a clear majority. One should not forget the economy of the country began to prosper with the sign of Rupee strengthening. However, after Mahinda’s regime, the continued military success of the army had an impact on the sentiments of the Sinhalese. It should not be forgotten that even Sir Winston Churchill’s Conservative Party Lost after the Second World War and Labour Party won. Therefore, Mahinda’s negligence on the economic development by concentrating only on militarization and the corruption on account of interference of the military might have a possible turn of event. It is against this background, Ranil’s advisors might have advised to use the terminology ‘credible power sharing’ without using the word ‘federalism’. But the use of ‘acceptable to the people at a referendum’ raises concern. It is not clear about having a referendum given the facts that the ‘Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord’ and ‘CFA’ was signed without a referendum while in the same breath the extension of the Presidential rule was held with the referendum by J.R.Jayawardena.
It is not clear whether to satisfy the Sinhala masses, but there are signs of change of hearts among the Sinhala leaders when Mangala Samaraweera said that the Sinhalese are not afraid of federalism. We cannot take into account of the JVP because it has lost its popularity even in the South on account if its evil attitude of misleading the people. It is time for Ranil to rise to the occasion and high light the urgency of economic development in order to relieve the people from poverty and re-visit the need for a political solution on the lines of federalism by way of experiment with close association with educated Tamils in order to defeat Sinhala extremism.
2. Sinhalese | October 11th, 2007 at 9:36 am
If LTTE has All the Tamils support in Noth eats that is still about 11%. JVP has 8% of votes, JHU has even less. So why we can’t give meaning full power sharing when over 80% of Sri Lankans support that. *0% of Sri Lankns do not support LTTE, JVP and JHU. Why we should be told what to do by these elements.
3. Naga UK | October 11th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Good analysis. Frustration seems to get the better of Ranil. One of the important virtues he had was, sticking to one policy. Consistency of policy in national issues had him somewhere afloat eventhough he lost so many elections marginally. He was (and is) known to be uncorrupt and this is a plus point too. Naturally it takes quite sometime for the people to realize the truth and sacrifices, forebearance, objectivity etc. are necessary to succeed in that sort of path. Juggling policies are for fly-by-night leaders who just do not care for the country.
The JVP seems to get lucky when they are in desperation. By forming an alliance with SLFP at a time they were not expecting such support, they cleverly pinched SLFP votes and sliced out 30 plus seats! In spite of the fact that they would love to cling on till the full tenure is over, they know they cannot keep mum for that long giving tacit approval to the going ons. They have to talk tough and keep at least their member vote bank intact. The attempts of the impatient elements trying to twist Ranil’s arms into jettison a policy he hetherto adhered to gives the JVP an opportunity pretend like an unwilling bride and topple the Goverment. Thereafter they will get on with their all too familiar conditional support and gradual highpitched orations ostensibly in the vain hope that they will destroy both major parties eventually and capture power one day. Good Dream! But you never know with Sri Lankan voters though.
My view is that Ranil should have known to capitalize on what seemed to be a misfortune of cross-overs. If he was a good and discerning leader as I thought him to be, he should have got rid of them and a few more by some means or the other earlier. The cross-over should have been a blessing in disguise. Most of them were known political cut-throats and causing damage to the party by their corrupt and anti-social practices.
I do hope that he takes the right step and take the marxists with a pinch of salt!
4. jan | October 11th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Ranil W is an untrustworthy politician who has lost the moral right to lead the sri lanka. The best he can do is to retire and free the sinhala people to decide there fate.
with regards to the tamil problem the tamils and the sinhalese must learn to trust each other. Duplicitous leaders should not be allowed to impose a solution. To start with the sinhala and the tamil people must analyse the origins of the problem .ie the violence perpetrated by the sinhalese / favouratism ,manipulations carried out by the tamils. Up till today the tamils pretend they are innocent victims which is furthest from the truth. Honesty and truthfullness by both communities is a must for the greater good of sri lanka
5. G.Kumar | October 11th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Excellent article. I hope the UNP ledership should read this. Until the majority decide to share the power the problem will continue. Let them to decide or destroy the country.
6. Hiran Kulatilake | October 11th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
Ranil is a useless fellow. He never had noble policies. He can be compared with John Harward of Australia. I hate both of them.
7. sham | October 11th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
i think its time UNP does away with RW. UNP should be a party based on meritocarcy. Would any businessman, CEO, Professional or any other person survive if they messed up 12 times in a row? people like sajith, and new people need to be given more thought of and this guy needs to leave. the first thing he did when he lost the election to MR was to appoint himself as Leader and next preseidential candidate for another term…
8. Chaminda Darshan ( London) | October 11th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
The writer is bit confushed with the fact he trying to give to the readers. He lost last 12 elections coz he did’t lies to his nation, Now a days sri lanka politics is bit mud sliding even the writers like this maybe taken money from the goverment to public articals to mislead the waken people of the country, same as they given money for the ltte during the last election. Our country really need true politicians like Mr Wickramasinghe for the next generation to be honest.
9. Anonymous | October 11th, 2007 at 11:53 pm
look to me in UNP can think again what to do,how to do,when to do to grab the power ,but the presant situation clearly give upper hand to Rajapaksa ,coz there intention was good in dealing to defeet tigers ,this is a good example to ranil not to fake or fool people coz there verywell aware of true means of srilanka .what take this in to the account UNP can start country friendy policy that will help to back again to power
10. Mike | October 12th, 2007 at 6:28 am
Ranil has at last come to the winning track thanks to proper guidance from Mangala who engineered MR’s victory.
Now it is a matter of calling an election the UNP with new blood can win convincingly.
Ranil lost in the past because he gave into terrorists. Now he stands firm to win. TNA voters will anyway not vote for the UNP therefore they are better forgotten.
Good luck Ranil for dropping the F word, that has been your disaster.
11. j.muthu | October 12th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Expected article,
Only fools beleive sinhalease, will ever agree resonable solution to tamil question. Democracy in srilanka laughable, I challenge any one why Tamil question must be decided by sinhala people, scotish devolution referandum decided by only scotish people so welsh devolution decided welsh. Tamil question must decided by tamil people only. We must try to get support from international community, arrange referandum weather we want a solution in united srilanka, or go for sparation. Separation is the best solution for tamils, Sinhala leaders are fools they ruined srilanka big time. They will never going to elect brainy and capable leaders. They will elect college drop outs( jvp) , mad monks(jhu) Thugs ( various leaders in UNP and SLFP).
Srilanka never ever going to be economically prosperous country as long as they choose destructive leaders.
12. Cicero | October 13th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Pradeep & Aupama, Who gave Ranil this label? What sort of ‘label(s)’ if any have they given to Mahinda??
Ranil may have not won many elections, but when he just simply tells things as it is, he is being given a label of ‘traitor’ as well.
If Ranil wears something like a kurakkan and say we will tell the international community off like Mugabe, Ahmadinejad, Musharaff, al-Bashir etc etc, then Ranil will be as successful as MR too
13. Naga UK | October 14th, 2007 at 11:22 am
There are times I cannot understand Ranil. I like him only because nobody has pointed fingers against him in the area of corruption and that he was brave enough to sign the peace agreement with the LTTE in ispite of Chandrika being in the helm. It takes a lot of courage and CUNNINGNESS) to do something like that. The last time who did that was Rajiv Ghandhi who had to pay the supreme price. Thank god he is still alive and kicking inspite of SB, Maharoof ( the butcher) and the likes. It is unbelievable that he was having in his fold Profisori, Milinda, Maharoof ( at present), SB, He is supposed to have (according to rumours) had special relationships with Milinda. If that is so it should stop there and no further! If he, for one moment try to defend Milinda….. that would be the end of our support to Ranil until we get a new leader.Unfortunately, the wqy it is designed, we do not have a prospective candidate. Is it the end of UNP and its professed meaning? The hard reality is that this what the JVP wants to show the country to get into power by eliminating both major parties. So, let’s have a dance and song about the JVP which has clinical designs for power! bye Mahinda, Bye Ranil, Welcome Amarasinghe, Welcome Prabha and thanks to Raja!
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