transcurrents

Parliament Playing The Numbers Game While People Watch

November 17th, 2007

by D.B.S. Jeyaraj

Mahinda Rajapakse celebrates his birthday today (nov 18th). Two years ago the people of this Country gave him a magnificient birthday present by making him victor in the Presidential poll of November 17th. This time Parliament is poised to present him another birthday gift by way of majority support when the vote is taken tomorrow (nov 19th).

[President Mahinda Rajapakse]

The past week has seen much excitement. The numbers game is being played by political parties of all hues. The target from the opposition leader’s point of view is to cobble together a majority that would vote against and defeat the Government in the budget voting. The goal from the head of the Government’s viewpoint is to prevent that situation by retaining the numerical majority and demonstrating that on the floor of the house.

The name of the game is numbers! While the great game to acquire the magic figure goes on a number of other little “games” are being played.. Some get sudden “conscience” attacks and want to cross over. Swift medical attention is shown by the powers that be. Portfolios, posts, perks and payments are pledged. This happens on either side of the political divide.

Hey! Presto!!. The conscience attacks are over and everything is hunky dory. Some remain where they were as their consciences are assuaged.

Others consciences however are not so easily satisfied. Perhaps the treatment was not enough or the expectations outweighed the promises. The grass is usuallu greener on the other side. The greenbacks too.

So some conscience afflicted persons do take that leap of faith. These conscience stricken people require different doctors to be cured.

A crisis they say brings out the best and worst in humanity.It is interesting and intriguing to see how a political crisis revolving around the numbers game brings out the bargaining power of certain respectable individuals.

The numbers crisis is the ideal opportunity to extract oodles and oodles of flesh plus bucketsful of blood. No Shylocks these! They get their flesh and blood too because they know when to demand successfully.

Its like a circus. Acrobats and trapeze artistes in clownish garb are flying from one side to another. One swings towards the opposition while another swishes on to the side of the treasury benches. Some are checked half – way and somersault back.

Some declare an intent to cross but do a topsy-turvy as profitable benefits are granted. Some protest-too loudly – that they have no intention to cross and everybody thinks they are going to do so. Such is the credibility of these honourable persons.

While these clownish games are on to make or unmake the Government in power, the people watch and speculate about the fluctuating fortunes of the respective parties and politicians. In a democracy the people are supposed to be supreme.

It is the people who elect the President and Parliament. Governments are formed in a manner reflecting the people’s will. Anyone elected by the people is duty bound to abide by the people’s will when deciding to change political colour.

But this does not happen here. The green elephants moved away from the UNP kraal in singles, doubles and in herds towards the Government. They wanted to reform the party by crossing over.

The Up Country politicians sank their differences to cross over to the Govt as they wanted to “serve” their people.

Rauf Hakeem was forced to jump because his colleagues would have done so without him. Hakeem was the SLMC leader so he followed.

Thus we saw the disgusting spectacle of persons elected on one ticket crossing over to the other side without trying to obtain the consent or approval of those who elected them.

On the other hand a couple of politicians who helped elect Mahinda as President crossed over to the opposition. Nowadays their primary occupation is to lure some more to the opposition.

The saffron brigade is seemingly divided with four persons ready to cross over because of their principles. The others are equally determined to restrain the jumpers on the basis of their principles. Wonder how many more Benz mobiles are needed to preserve ethno – fascist unity.

The Crimson comrades hold some powerful cards. They are trying to extract pledges of an extremist nature from a politically beleaguered President. But the national socialists are in trouble too.

They are in no mood to face an election alone if Parliament is dissolved. Chances are that the comrades could vote against in large numbers if they are sure the regime will not topple and could vote in small numbers otherwise.

Muslim and Up Country Tamil politicians desirous of crossing back to the opposition are also likely to make their moves only if sure that the Government is crumbling.

This goes for those green elephant crossers-over who want to return and also the SLFP malcontents flirting with the idea of jumping. It mainly depends on whether they are sure of the regime’s impending downfall.

The Tamil National alliance is also in a bind. Many of the MP’s are not in Colombo due to security reasons. More importantly it is not clear what their masters want them to do. Some political pundits in the Rajapakse camp accuse the tigers of backing UNP moves to defeat the government at the budget vote.

But there is another school of thought which believes that the tigers who brought Rajapakse to power will like to safeguard his position. Apparently the tigers fear Mr. Wickremasinghe’s crafty sophistication more than President Rajapakse’s crude show of force.

[Mr. Ranil Wickremasinghe at Gampola Rally, May 19, 2007 - Pic: UNP.lk]

It is against this backdrop that the current game of numbers is being played. The opposition leader in typical style is keeping his cards close to his chest.

While Mr. Wickremasinghe keeps a low profile moves are afoot to woo and entice so that the required magic number is reached.

President Rajapakse is characteristically ebullient and asserts boldly that “Ranil Wickremasinghe will not be able to defeat the budget in Parliament on Monday”.

His deputies like Messrs. Fernandopulle, Premjayanth , Alahapperuma and of course Brer.Basil are engaged in maintaining the status quo and also draw in a few more MP’s as a bonus.

So Parliament engages in the numbers game against the President while the people who elected them watch and wait as mere spectators.

Both sides are engaged in offensive and defensive tactics against one another. One manouevre is canvassing among MP’s of the other side and making them cross over. The other is convincing potential (double) crossers not to cross over to the other side.

The situation is fluid as loyalties are fickle. Trying to identify who is staying or going is an exercise in futility as nothing is firmly certain.

Even chameleons cannot match the elaborate and speedy colour changes going on. So we have to wait until tomorrow (Nov 19th) to know the final result and also who voted for and against.

DBS Jeyaraj can be contacted on: djeyaraj@federalidea.com

Entry Filed under: transCurrents