War clouds loom large on political horizon
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
The Geneva conclave has come and gone! As predicted in these columns the parley was a failure. The summit took place without any agenda because both parties could not agree to a common one. Both sides came with their own agenda and spoke at rather than talking to each other. In the end they could not even decide on a date for the next round of talks or even draft a joint communiqué. Unable and unwilling to ” agree to disagree” they read out their separate statements to the press Even then t hey were more interested in projecting their particular point of view to their respective constituencies.
My heart goes out to the much maligned, grossly misunderstood Norwegians. To Erik Soheim. Jon Hanssen – Bauer, Hans Brattskar and all those other vikings who toil valiantly against overwhelming odds to bring an end to bloodshed and strife among two groups of “pissu” and “paithiyam” people. Erik Solheim cut a tragic and lonely figure on the TV screen as he read out his statement that sought hard to find a silver lining in a dark cloud. Here is the statement in full -
” The consultations took place in Geneva on 28-29 October 2006 following requests by the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE to meet to discuss humanitarian issues and political questions. At the Co-chair meeting in Brussels on 12 September, the Tokyo co-chairs (EU, Japan, USA and Norway) encouraged the parties to meet for consultations.
Parties deserve recognition for accepting this call by the co-chairs, coming for these consultations at a time when conflict is more apparent than peace in Sri Lanka.
The parties agreed that the peace process will need to address the three following areas:
• Human suffering
• Military de-escalation and reduction of violence
• Political components leading up to a political settlement
The Government presented the political process between the UNP and the SLFP. The international community has welcomed this initiative. The GOSL also made a reference to the work of the All Party Conference.
Discussions were also held on the urgent humanitarian situation and the need to address the plight of a very large number of civilians. Several issues were discussed. The LTTE requested the A9 to be opened. The Government refused to do so at this point. No agreement was reached between the parties on how to address the humanitarian crisis.
No date for a new meeting was agreed upon. Norway will be in ongoing dialogue with the parties to discuss all possible ideas on how to move the peace process forward.
Both parties reiterated their commitment to the ceasefire agreement and promised not to launch any military offensives. The international community has repeatedly expressed that it expects the parties to show restraint and fulfill these commitments.
I encouraged the parties to allow themselves some time to reflect on the situation and not to draw hasty conclusions or take actions that could increase the suffering of civilians in Sri Lanka. “.
Representatives of the four co – chairs engaged the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) delegations before and after their return from Geneva. The US was absent in the meetings with the LTTE. Little is known of what transpired in these meetings but it does not require Kautilyan skills to gauge that among other matters both sides would have been urged not to launch military offensives at this juncture. Sadly events on ground are rapidly moving towards greater conflict.
Artillery firing along the border – axis of Kilaly – Eluthumattuvaal – Nagar Kovil had commenced from Nov 1st. Both the GOSL and LTTE have accused each other of firing artillery and mortars at each others positions. The Army says that a corporal Nandakumara was killed at Muhamalai and four others injured in two incidents of firing. With the Nandasena incident occurring at 1. 30 am on Thursday the bombing that followed seems to be a revenge rather than result oriented exercise.
On Thursday Nov 2nd two air strikes were launched from the skies over Kilinochchi district. Around 11. 45 am areas between Pallavarayankattu and Poonagary were bombed. In the afternoon at about 2. 15 pm Aanandapuram and Thiruvaiyaaru within Kilinochchi town limits were bombed. The Kilinochchi hospital though not directly hit was caught up in the bombing melee. Nearly a thousand patients fled from the premises. Five civilians were killed and twelve injured. The incident was the first of its kind where Kilinochchi the interim capital of the LTTE in the North was bombed.
Apart from the Northern province the Eastern arena of war was full of destructive activity too. From Tuesday Oct 31st 6.00 pm to Wednesday Nov 1st 5 am an incessant barrage of artillery and MBRL rockets were fired from the army camps at Valaichenai paper factory premises, Karadikkuli, Cadjuwatte and Mankerni. The shelling was directed at the LTTE controlled areas of Panichankerny, Ooriyankattu, Sallitheevu, Kandaladdy, Vaaharai and Thattumunai in Batticaloa North.
On the following morning on Wednesday Nov 1st an air strike commenced at 7. 15 am. Three Sri Lankan Air Force bombers flew five sorties and dumped at least 43 bombs on the LTTE controlled areas of Kattumurivukkulam and Kadiraweli. The casualty figures are not known yet though at least twelve houses are reportedly damaged or destroyed.
The Armed forces justify the shelling and bombing as pre-emptive strikes. They say that 189 Tamil civilians fleeing from the LTTE controlled areas of Kattumurivu and Kirimichai claimed refuge at the Mankerni and Punanai Army camps. The civilians had complained to the army of an influx of LTTE men and materials into the region. The LTTE had allegedly compelled them to dig bunkers and build fortifications.
Against this backdrop the GOSL position is that the LTTE is preparing to launch an offensive and that the air strikes and artillery firing is only a pre-emptive bid to counter that. The Tigers on the other hand charge that the army is preparing to mount an offensive into the Vaaharai – Panichankerny region under LTTE control. Additional personnel from other areas are being transported daily in ten buses to the Mankerny and Cadjuwatte camps they allege.
This is the scenario in the North too. It may be recalled that the LTTE complained of a massive inflow of Security force men and materials into the Kilaly. Eluthumadduvaal – Nagar Kovil camps even as talks were on in Geneva. The Tigers charged the GOSL of preparing for another offensive to retake Elephant Pass .
Likewise the GOSL accuses the LTTE of getting ready to launch another offensive to capture Jaffna. It charges the LTTE of launching artillery attacks as a prelude. Of late the GOSL has another charge too. It says that the LTTE is attacking along Muhamaalai to prevent the entry point from being opened. This however is an echo of a charge that the LTTE is leveling against the GOSL.
With dark clouds of war gathering across the political horizon all prospects of peace are diminishing. It was only on Oct 29th that both the GOSL and LTTE solemnly pledged in Geneva that they would not launch offensives. The Ceasefire Agreement clause 1.3 forbids offensives. ” The Sri Lankan armed forces shall continue to perform their legitimate task of safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka without engaging in offensive operations against the LTTE.” This has for long been observed in the breach.
[Geneva Talks 2, Photo: TamilNet]
But at Geneva the commitment on offensives was renewed again. As Erik Solheim observed:
” Both parties reiterated their commitment to the ceasefire agreement and promised not to launch any military offensives. The international community has repeatedly expressed that it expects the parties to show restraint and fulfill these commitments.”
Solheim also said – ” I encouraged the parties to allow themselves some time to reflect on the situation and not to draw hasty conclusions or take actions that could increase the suffering of civilians in Sri Lanka”.
Instead of honouring their promises or pausing to reflect preparations are afoot to launch major operations. The artillery firing and aerial bombardment are as usual preparatory exercises. Like the proverbial Tamil saying about the tinkle from the elephants bell preceding the animal (Yaanai varum pinne, Mani osai varum munne) the artillery and aerial bombardment precedes forward movement on ground.
In a sense both parties are taking off from where they were forced to stop due to Geneva. The GOSL had set its sights on certain military objectives and was keen on achieving them despite recersals at Muhamaalai and Panichankerny or setbacks in Habarana and Galle. Likewise the LTTE had after changed its strategy of withdrawal into a more formidable one prior to Geneva.
Both sides were unable to proceed with their war plans because of International pressure. Both sides “suspended” war briefly and went to Geneva to appease International sentiment and depict the other side as the bad guys. Making public promises and breaking them is nothing new to both sides. In fact such conduct is a key element of the Rajapakse regime (Poronthuvela enda; passa balamu). Nimal Siripala is his “aluth” masters voice. Suppiah Paramu Thamilselvan of course is being his usual self again of lying for “thalaiver” (leader) and “Iyakkam” (Movement).
[Jaffna residents stranded in Vavuniya - Photo: TamilNet]
The issue of closure and/or opening of the Muhamaalai checkpoint on the A – 9 highway is entangled in this war hysteria. The GOSL does not want to open up the Muhamaalai point for its own military reasons. It wants goods to be taken by sea for the same reason. The LTTE wants the Muhamaalai point opened up for military reasons. It refuses to accept goods being taken by sea for the same reasons.
The Jaffna peninsula meanwhile experiences severe shortage of food, medicine, fuel and essential items and is heading for a humanitarian catastrophe but the powers that be are in no mood to relent. Neither the GOSL which is claims to be the de – jure ruling entity nor the LTTE that has taken over as the de – facto ruling entity evince any real concern over the tragic plight of their pathetic subjects the Tamil people of Jaffna. Their concerns and objectives are militaristic despite assertions that they are humanitarian.
The GOSL has two sets of politico – military objectives in the North and East.In the North it wants to retain the Jaffna peninsula and Islands, retake Elephant Pass, Paranthan, Kilinochchi, Poonagary and the North – Western seaboard from Kalmunai to Thallady. In the East it wants complete control of Trincomalee district and the Batticaloa – Amparai littoral from Vaaharai down to Potuvil.The Western hinterland of Batticaloa – Amparai it hopes to “manage” through the Karuna faction.
The LTTE will naturally resist these military manouevers to the best of its ability. But Velupillai Pirapakaran is not a man who will let the enemy dictate the time. mode and terrain of conflict for long. It is only a matter of time before he enlarges the conflict arena and enhances the terms of combat.The GOSL has ushered in a new phase this time by bombing Kilinochchi, the de-facto LTTE capital. There are bound to be repercussions.
The stage then is being set for resumption of hostilities on a major scale. Both sides would say that they are adhering to the Geneva undertaking of not resorting to offensives. The GOSL would have us believe that they are only launching ” Defensives”. The LTTE would have us believe that they only engage in strategic defensive operations. There is much commonality at least in this.
There will be no victors. Neither side can totally vanquish or annihilate the other. There will be “see – saw” ups and downs in military fortunes. They can however inflict great damage on each other and themselves. Only one thing is certain. The people of Sri Lanka in general and the Tamils in particular will undergo much suffering , hardship and misery. The Muhamaalai closure is but a cruel harbinger of tough times lying ahead.
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November 4th, 2006