Sri Lanka after the War - Part I
by Col R Hariharan
[Extracts of this article were included in a presentation the author had made at a panel discussion on ?Sri Lanka after LTTE reverses? organised by the Centre for Asian Studies, Chennai and the Dept. of Political Science, Madras University, Chennai on May 26, 2009.]
Macro issues
Undoubtedly Sri Lanka, under the leadership of President Mahinda Rajapaksa, has scored an unprecedented military victory in the Eelam War IV with the near total elimination of the entire leadership of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). After that the LTTE?s military struggle has been turned into an existential struggle. It will be a long haul for the LTTE to get back into some shape as the Sri Lanka war machine grinds on relentlessly in the name of taming the Tamil Tigers.
The Sri Lankan victory, tarnished by the death of 20,000 civilians, has thrown afresh the question ?what happens after the war?? Many analysts have focused on issues like devolution of powers to Tamils, rehabilitation of displaced population, and development of north and east as some of the instruments to ?resolve? the vexing ethnic issue.
The fundamental truth is Sri Lanka society is divided along ethnic lines between Sinhalas and Tamils as never before. The Sinhala-Tamil divide took over 50 years to become a fact of life from the Tamil point of view. In the last three decades or so, Tamil militancy and the state?s response to it had frustrated the chances of healing processes attempted by well meaning souls. The huge show of power in the aftermath of military victory has made minority Tamils confident of their future as their past experience tells them not to expect the rulers to keep their promises.
There are no magic potions that would erase overnight the sense of mistrust and insecurity pervading all sections of Tamil society in Sri Lanka. No amount of speeches in parliament or promises in international podiums is going to convince Tamils unless deeds match the words. As it is a state of mind, it requires much more than the statistical figures of number of Tamil ministers and members in parliament unless they produce worthwhile actions to restore confidence among the minorities. Unfortunately, such actions, beyond political expediency, have not been paid adequate attention by the stakeholders including Sinhala and Tamil intelligentsia.
The situation has become more complex now than ever before because the LTTE is no more there as an extra legal power centre. There is a strong external constituency now as the world is increasingly networked than it was in 1983 when Tamil militancy blossomed.. So old solutions, including military actions, by either side are not going to resolve the issues. Any process to succeed now will have to be inclusive rather than exclusive or ?home grown? as President Rajapaksa likes to call it.
To make Sri Lanka?s path to permanent peace a smooth one, the people and rulers of Sri Lanka as well as India and the international community should address a cluster of issues that may be grouped under five heads. These are: the LTTE and its future, rise of Rajapaksa and its impact, Tamil minority politics, the India-Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka triangular relations, and international response to Sri Lanka.
Future of LTTE
Prabhakaran was the life and soul of the LTTE. Prabhakaran had the ability to control the two vital segments of the organisation ? the external resources segment and the internal operational segment. Like many other insurgent groups, LTTE was an autocracy and Prabhakaran?s writ ran the LTTE and decided the life and death of its rank and file. So the leadership hierarchy was in the form of pecking order based on a crony system. The wiping out of the entire leadership has not left a leader of proven ability or remnant of a central leadership that can marshal the cadres scurrying within Sri Lanka to save their lives from the security forces, and motivate them to continue the struggle.
On the other hand, the LTTE?s huge overseas assets, held under cover names of front men and organisations, are under the control of minutemen. Selvarasa Pathmanathan, the LTTE international affairs representative and only senior leader left alive, has sufficient experience in handling the links of LTTE?s external segment. He is a smooth and wily operator who could manage gain control of most of the overseas tentacles. However, the ambitions of some local satraps guarding the LTTE pie with their muscle power might interfere with Pahmanathan?s moves. Moreover, Pathmanathan?s financial integrity in handling party funds was suspect even in Prabhakaran?s time. So even if he controls the external segment, it is doubtful whether he can control and motivate the operational segment inside Sri Lanka. Considering these issues, it might take sometime before a new leadership with control over both the external and internal segments emerges.
President Rajapaksa's ascendancy
President Rajapaksa has delivered what he promised the voters in the run up to the election ? victory over the LTTE. LTTE has been given a body blow from which it would be difficult to regain its former glory. Thus Rajapksa has become the unchallenged leader of the country ? a modern day Dutta Gamunu; if all goes well he would be victorious in his quest for presidency for a second term as well. Thus he is likely to be in power till 2028. If he could plan and eliminate LTTE from a position of political and military power in three years, he has the potential to resolve the ethnic divide between the two major communities. But can he and will he do it?
Rajapaksa?s military success has swept lot shortcomings in his style of governance under the carpet. There has been scant respect for rule of law in the high handed conduct of senior officials and ministers; well meaning measures that would improve governance (like the 17th amendment of the Constitution) have been deferred; free media has been hounded by both legal and extra legal methods; NGOs have come under pressure to toe the government line, indirect measures are being adopted to control INGOs, and many Tamils are uncertain of their security as the ?while van? syndrome has not vanished.
The devolution of powers to Tamils has been used as a political ploy to keep the Tamil lobbies at bay as the Tissa Vitharana commission?s recommendations have not seen the light of the day. Similarly the much heralded ushering in of 13th amendment of the Constitution to devolve powers to the provincial council still remains a cruel joke than a reality.
The President appears to be ruling the country with the assistance of a triumvirate of his two brothers Basil and Gotabaya along with the Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka. In fact he is more dependent upon them to carry out his agenda than his unwieldy cabinet of ministers. This style of personalised governance focuses on results rather than accountability and suits war situations. However, the style comes with a cost because it inevitably gives rise to many acts of omission and commission. This is what is happening in Sri Lanka.
Though the war is over, the Army Commander General Fonseka has said that armed forces strength would be increased by 50 percent to 300,000 (nearly one fourth the size of Indian armed forces? strength of 1.13 million). This is ostensibly to eliminate the last vestige of LTTE from the Sri Lanka soil. While the intentions appear logical, the question arises whether such a huge army is required for counter insurgency after armed forces of a much smaller strength had defeated the LTTE and regained territorial control of insurgent-controlled territory.
Oversized armies tend to grow into power centres that influence political decision making either indirectly or directly for decades. Turkey and Indonesia are good examples of this phenomenon. Big armies usually find issues and rationale to justify their existence. Pakistan is a shining example of this home truth. And in counter insurgency operations they tend to cloud political judgement because military option is more easily exercised than protracted peace parleys. Though Sri Lanka armed forces have excelled in warfare, they and the civil society will have to ensure that militarism does not become part of national life.
On the current line of thinking the counter insurgency operations in the coming years in Sri Lanka would probably be based on a network of garrison towns established in major communication centres and towns in north and east. They would probably make endless forays of patrols on search and destroy missions in the interior. There are two problems with this process. Sri Lanka armed forces are manned by the Sinhala community. Unless the armed forces take pains to induct sufficient Tamil speaking recruits and employ them for operations in north and east it will not gain the trust and confidence of demoralised Tamil people. If Sri Lanka attempts to rush through the operation, without undergoing the painful process of turning the armed forces truly national in character and composition, it would only hasten the birth and growth of another Prabhakaran. Secondly, does the Sri Lanka government expect Tamil militancy as a permanent feature of Sri Lanka life? (To be continued)
(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog: www.colhariharan.org E-mail:colhari@yahoo.com)
24 Comments
Hari,
Why these garrison towns now that the LTTE has been wiped out?
You know very well what is happening here. Stop this harping on the LTTE. The LTTE is not the issue. The issue is a government that absolutely refuses to conform to the norms of our civilization and respect and defend human rights.
Do you get it?????
Hariharan
DO you think SL gov. think about tamils good life? If they think good to do tamil,They can not kill more than 50000 people without thinking any thing. Prabhakaran not killing like this amount of innocent people. You and your indian government have to think who is terrerist? Is Rajapaksa or Is Prabharan. Live is not different that is Rajiv Gandhi or innocent tamil. India is the enemy for Srilankan Tamils. They create the problem for their benefit. Because of Ltte not listening to them and they thing only Srilankan tamil security, India cannot accept that. That is why they planned to eliminate Ltte. Indians are self fish mind people.
It is a well balanced article. But unfortunately it didnt consider the burning issues such as the fate of 300000 thousands people in concentration camps, rape and the force disappearances.
.
Srilanka's military is bigger than British Army, It's too late for India to do anything now.
Within 5 minutes Srilankan Airforce can destroy Nuclear stations in Tamilnadu wiping out entire Tamilians.
:-)
The President has only one view - the next Elections
and everything will be done in that direction - Doubling the Army means at least three votes per
Recruit, which will ensure a hands-over win. The cost
of maintaining that extra hands in the Army is covered by the present Budget. With S.Fonseka at the helm, North and East will continue to be occupied well and true. The garrison type control will ensure sinhala colonisation - as Planned by JHU-NFF-Gota- Rajiv-Dayan-Palitha clique!
Srilanka took thirty yrs to defeat LTTE militarilly and LTTE took so long to loose.We can look at how this
happened from many angles and determine what's next.For
thirty yrs Srilanka has seen five presidents while LTTE
had one determined leader with one goal in mind. Military chiefs also have come and gone,employing
different strategies.Out of five presidents,three were from UNP who failed to defeat LTTE because of one clear reason.India was ready to interfere.Time was
changing,rulers were changing and the climates were not changing in favour of LTTE.What we see heere is,
the victory of this battle was handed over to the present govt as a gift to their foreign policy.Not
only LTTE, any future new groups will definitely learn lessons from this outcome that this is not the route
for them.
In another ten yrs, a lot can change.There's going to be a whole new Tamil generation wno are going to be
westerners growing up with less enthusiasm about a land they are not living in.As long as Srilanka enjoys regional support, eforts by any group of insurgency sinhala or tamil is destined to fail.
Access to and Control of IDP camps (From Dr. Pradeep Jeganathans Blog)
Thu, May 28, 2009
In the discussion thread, to one of Indi's recent blog posts, about the international community and IDP camps in Sri Lanka, Ravana asks this question about access to the camps:
"I know Sri Lankan NGOs have access, right? Is that correct? The news reports seem to portray the impression that no one is allowed in. That impression is blatantly false, isn’t it? Indi - you’ve been there. What’s the deal?..." To which Indi says: "I haven’t been to the camps. I’ve been to the hospitals..."
Let me try to clarify, since I think I do know. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me.
Most camps, including the massive (second largest IDP camp in the world) manik farm (zone 1,2,3 & 4 which was/is under construction) were/are accessible to some 52 agencies, which include, Sri Lanka NGOs, INGOS and UN agencies. As of about two weeks ago, restrictions on the entry of agency vehicles carrying personal, but not supplies was imposed. Because allegedly there were people being taken out, in these vehicles. Before this, these vehicles had access also. The deal offered was that relief supply trucks, with uniformed, unarmed, GoSL trooper escort, in the truck, would be allowed. Additionally now, other agency vehicles, if parked inside the camps, can be used to transport agency personal within the camps. Personal have to move out of these vehicles when they leave the camps, and use the vehicles they arrived in for road travel. I think this is a functioning deal, especially the first part. The second part of the deal is in progress. But it has not been so reported, I don't think, internationally. Relief supplies have never been restricted, as far as I know.
There are, however, other 'holding' camps, where LTTE suspects are being held, where there is not this straight forward access. I understand ICRC, through the usual procedures has some access. More access should be forthcoming. But this is not a very large number of people, and it is not what makes the news.
CA GoSl, who is Major General, controls the camps; agencies do not have any control over the camps. I believe many agencies that have access, would rather have control over the camps. Or more control. Why is a question to ponder. Undoubtedly its quite political.
Consider this quote from a long article on transCurrencts & Tamilweek.com, that is a manifesto for some thing called the Tamil National Congress (TNC), which is seeks to replace the LTTE, and work as a Tamil government in exile. "Whilst pursuing the diplomatic & legal offensives against the Sri Lankan government, TNC should also take the lead role in alleviating the sufferings of the Internally Displaced People (IDP’s). IC should be successfully persuaded by the TNC to allow it to run the rehabilitation and resettlement efforts in North and East of Sri Lanka. This will amount to a pseudo interim administration." That's an interim administration of the government in exile, within Sri Lanka, I guess. ().
No doubt the odd musings of one man. Nevertheless, I think it better that all IDP camps in Sri Lanka are controlled by the GoSL, which is, for all its short comings, accountable to its citizens. I am suprised, actually, that this is a debate.
However, to be fair to whole thread above, its been a debate about access not control, which seems to be a misunderstanding of ground realities.
Sri Lanka army to increase to 300,000 !! more money in the hands of vested interests. The poor 300,000 people in idp camps,will be behind barbed wire for years to come.
It is not the LTTE posing threat to India now; it is Sri Lanka, with the backing of China, will pose future threat to India.
The War is Over, the LTTE are OVER... if stupid deluded Diaspora supporters think they can revive the LTTE TERRORISM STRUGGLE again while living 12,000 Miles away behind foriegn Borders, then we will HUNT THEM DOWN and Finish them off too...
Hari,
There will be no devolution of power in Sri Lanka. The president of Sri Lanka mentioned in his speaches several times that there is only one people called Sri Lankans and one nation called Sri Lanka. So, nobody can expect anything else as you mentioned his style is to focus on results and not on accountability.
If GOSL liberated Tamils from LTTE, what are they afraid of now?.Why are they putting so much restriction for media, NGO, IDP's , etc. GOSL Presidents says: I was fighting India's battle. From this statement what he is going to achive.GOSL indicates,13th Amendment must be implemented to solve the ethnic problem and also to devolve Police and Land Powers to the Provincial Councils. How long GOSL is going to take to implement the so-called 13 amendment. Failed democratic GOSL is trying to fool every one in the world. How long ....
Dear Colonel,
As a keen student of the Lankan contemporary political scene and as one who has had the advantage of being physically present here for an extended period as a soldier, you would have been in a position to better educate those present in the Chennai Seminar you refer to if you also added to the list of MR & Brothers, Army Chief Fonseka the names of the garrulous Wimal Weerawansa, the PNM and those Buddhist priests of various hues and cries that hang around Temple Trees as the real political powers today in the country. Not to mention the Mahanayakes in Kandy. The Parliament is a dead-duck and so the spineless opposition. How on earth did you come to the conclusion the additional 100,000 men Sarath Fonseka demands is to “eliminate the last vestiges of the LTTE” Dear Colonel, that the LTTE leadership is wiped out and all its cadres have vanished is something even a 5th standard student here knows all too well. While the people of Sri Lanka have reason to worry why we need such a large army you good people on the other side of the Palk Straits will have some thinking to do as well as to if this idea of an increased army strength on an enemy no longer there is one of the home-grown variety or something else. To use Panikkar’s language this can well “cause threats of an inimical nature to India’s security interests” coming from regional powers. So watch out.
Ilaya Seran Senguttuvan
Yes - there does seem to be a clear disconnect between the defeat of the LTTE and the desire to increase the size of the army to 300,000. This would take the SLA close to the top ten (Iran is now in tenth place with 320,000 men under arms). It would also leave India just about outnumbered against the combined numbers of Pakistan, Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal.
I do wonder whether Lanka is not upping the ante by incresaing irs armed forces not with a view a dealing with a new Tamil insurgency but to create a strong enough military to deter India from coming in again as did the IPKF in the later eighties. There are other precedents for a small island building up a large military to deter a giant neighbour from coming in, eg Taiwan and Cuba. If so, one product of the war may be a significant change in the strategic map of the region.
Remebering that when the IPKF first came it, the GOSL strategy was to fight a proxy war with India through arming the LTTE (something that still arouses anger in India) - and in the end succesfully, though at the cost of making the LTTE so powerful - powerful enough to defeat India - that it was able to hold on to the territories vacated by India for over a decade. The GOSL got rid of India at the cost of giving the LTTE Tamil Ealam and after more than a decade and tens of thousands of deaths has got back to where it as before the IPKF came in.
What will the next move be? It is really easy to see a future scenario where the GOI in turn goes into payback mode and funds and arms a new Tamil insurgency. Whether this can work or not will depend on whether the GOSL allows the conditions for another Tamil insurgency to arise. If the GOSL is able to satisfy Tamil aspirations (going agaist 50 years of GOSL policy), India may be checked. If not, all bets may still be open.
The issue is not Rajapases’ and their impact. But how India is going to handle him.
Options
1. Engage him and bring him to his sense.
2. Let him loose. India can benefit more from a rouge government than a good one.
3. Kill him.
4. Create a military revolt
I think India will have to eventually let him loose. Reason, China has the veto power to protect him from UN. Therefore China will command more influence on SL. All what China wants is a port, not a part of SL!!!
Indians has to eat the humble pie. Sit and watch. Feel sorry for the horrible and inhuman mistake of letting Tamils down on the bed of death. At the end Indians lost good friends in their backyard.
Aratai, at the Mig-27's cruising speed of 240kmph it will take the SLAF two hours to reach the two nuclear stations at Kalpakkam, close to Chennai, and one hour to reach the two under construction at Kudankulam, close to Nagarcoil.
Amrit, at 300,000 the SL Army will be the tenth-largest (technically the ninth, because both Russia and Iran are tied for eighth place with 320,000 each). 2.5% of Sri Lanka's population will be in the Armed Forces.
Dear Hariharan,
If the increase of security forces is what it takes to secure the peace in Sri Lanka, they must do it. After all Sri Lanka does not want another 1971 JVP, 1988-89 JVP and 1983-2009 LTTE. Country has lost too many younger generations within last decades. Therefore, I do see the need for the increased security. But how it should be done, I will leave it to the experts in security. General Sarath Fonseka had an accurate assessment of the LTTE to win the war. Otherwise he will never win. The security need assessment for the future looks justified. India does not need to worry about the current government as they have a closer relationship. It is the other forces who would like to change current Indian and Sri Lankan leadership will worry. I think Sri Lanka is matured enough to give the priority for the Asian neighbors. I see the same maturity in current India too.
If I have a cancer in a hand I may have to remove it to save my life. Terrorism is a cancer which can kill not only a life but a country. On the other hand how can I tell my neighbor, how to live with his/her family? It is my neighbor who knows best how to live with the family. Therefore home grown solution is better than imported solutions. Of course Sri Lanka will learn lessons from other countries but the solution has to be their own. It is not possible to compare Sri Lankan situation and needs with the other countries such as Indian, Pakistan, UK or Iran. We have to understand the Sri Lankan situation from its context so as any other country. If not we can see another middle east in the South Asian region.
The army's strength increase is another rhetoric from the Army commander in response to Tamil Nadu politicians that Indian Army will be deployed to create Eelam.
How he will feed the 300 0000 ? From the relief fund received for the IDPs ?
May be envisaging the coveted Presidency post after a coup. Looks he got right advice from the Pakistan trip.
Rajapakse be careful!
One thing I'm fairly sure is the Rajapakse bros. will not threaten India. They know who can exert real influence over Sri Lanka. A govt. flunkie once quipped "We can ignore the rest of the world at will. But if India says "Jump" we must Jump". The 300,000 army will be useless if India decides to blockade Sri Lanka Navaly and turn a blind eye to weapons smuggling from TN. Interesting to find out what Field Marshall Fonseka is playing at. Many people in the know say he harbours political ambitions with views of the most unsavoury kind. He probably realises that all that stands between him and the throne is his counterpart in the Navy. Hence the constant sniping at the Navy every time he gets some airtime on the telly.
Of course Fonseka could kill two birds with one stone and conscript one member from each displaced Tamil family into the army. The Rs. 20,000 salary will go a long way towards putting them back on their feet. He could also then boast to the world about his truly multicultural army and silence critics who point out the mono cultural nature of the SLA by making it an everybody's army. Imagine the saving on training! I believe many of them have already had some basic training courtesy of Prabakaran.
Thanks for the clarification David. I thought that the MIG 27 could do above mach 1 - but assume that your point is that to drop a payload it would need to go at crusing speed. Maybe not the place for a techical discussion (I think India itself flies about 100 Mig 27's comapred to the 7 (?) SL has).
Tharaka I hope you are right and the GOSL is not looking up the ante in terms of geopolitics. Still, a 300,000 army is a heavy cost to pay for a small country to maintain basic security. I do feel very sad when you see the great strides being made by India (especially places like TN and the rest of south india) and Lanka expending its energy in military aggrandisement like North Korea. Surely, it is better expends one's efforts in negotiating a settlment that keeps everyone happy and spend the money on development? May sound old fashioned - but it seems to work elsewhere.
Devinda Fernando,
You can't go to those countries and do what you do in Srilanka. Thats why people selected to came out of srilanka and do the protest. LTTE is not defeated, they went on hibernation. At the same time the diaspora will carry the struggle. When Eelam blosomes, LTTE need to be there with the force, other wise stuppid people like A.Sangari, Douglas and Karuna will abuse it.
Please advise the government to adapt your plan. We are all waiting.
Amrit, you're correct about the MiG-27's speed. It can reach mach 1+ with afterburners on, but its range of a 1,000+ kms can only achieved at cruising speed. Kalpakkam is approximately 550km from Anuradhapura, and Kudankulam roughly 300km, half and quarter the MiG-27's range, so realistically the MiGs could fly faster. Whether our MiGs can get through the IAF air defences -- which include MiG-29 Fulcrums -- is another matter!
The increase of SL armed forces to at least 300,000 will be supported (armed and financed) by China.
The point is to keep India at bay.
And it is not difficult to keep the SriLankans motivated in this regard for, as has always been, the Sinhala-Buddhist absolutely detests India.
(For example Rajiv Gandhi was assaulted while inspecting the honour guard, and the LTTE was used to get rid of the IPKF.)
And now the Sinhala-Buddhist has even less respect for the Indians because they have outwitted them once again by playing them against China.
Dingiri,
The time when "if India says "Jump" we must Jump"" is over.
In fact that was the case until just after Killinochi - until then India's help was indispensable and as well India was seen as able to use the LTTE as a counter.
Once that phase was over and the massive support from China started playing its part India was seen as only an irritating noise.
India messed up largely due to internal politics (which is one of the reasons why Congress kept on harping about Rajiv Gandhi - the sympathetic patriotic vote factor).
Congress managed to get back into power but at the expense of India's greater regional and future interests.
So the winner is China!