Mahinda compelled to seek Tamil votes after Sarath entered fray
By Upul Joseph Fernando
Since the Sri Lanka (SL) war began in 1983 , SL’s political agendas have been dictated not according to the wishes of the politicians or the astrological calculations, but by the requirements of Velupillai Prabhakaran in the Wanni jungles. Not only the SL’s politics but even the election of a President of SL was determined by Prabhakaran.
The politicians therefore thought that after Prabhakaran’s death in Nandikadal zone , the power of decision making can be resumed by them. They were delighted that in the future , SL politics will be charted not by Wanni but by Colombo.
This notion seems to be a misconception when seen in the backdrop of the queuing of Presidential candidates at the forthcoming Presidential elections ,and politicians at the Jaffna Nallur Kovil , in acts of worship. If the Presidential race is to be won , the Tamil votes are vital.
Both the main rival candidates as well as the Govt. and the Opposition have realized this .While the Sinhala votes are split in two for the upcoming Presidential elections the deciding factor will be the Tamil votes or the Tamil population which will decide who will be SL’s next Executive President.
In other words , even though Prabhakaran is no more and the Tamil Tigers are annihilated, the power of making political decisions is still in the hands of the of the Tamil people. The election of SL’ s next President will also be hinged on the decision of the Tamil population.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa concluded the war in order to ride high on the war victory and secure a second Presidential term in office by winning the elections on the Sinhala votes. Gen. Fonseka too won the war not unaware of President’s political agenda.
Both of them did not heed the huge hue and cry which were raised to stop the war from within SL and from without by the Tamil Diaspora across the world. They went ahead and somehow destroyed Prabhakaran and the Tamil Tigers.
Following the devastation , the Tamil population was plunged into despair and disaster. Their dire plight was analyzed as follows by the Tamil nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi.
“After the defeat of the Tamil Tigers the Tamil people have no option but to negotiate with the SL Govt. on cordial terms . President Mahinda Rajapaksa will be in power continuously.
It is best not to enter into conflict with the President, rather , somehow ingratiate into his favour with a view to achieving their needs. Fighting for their demands will be unavailing.” The Tamil Diaspora across the world protested against Karunanidhi’s announcement . They claimed that Karunanidhi is giving instructions to the Tamil people to live as second class citizens.
Truly speaking , Prabhakaran secured for the Tamil people in SL a prestigious position through the war. With the end of the war their prestige too ended. This was amply illustrated , when India too abandoned them as the Tamil Tigers were getting defeated in the war.
But , when the Tamil Tigers were appearing to be winning the war , India was the most vociferous on behalf of the Tamil population championing their cause.
India which insisted earlier nothing less than a Federal solution shall be acceptable for the Tamil people began saying the Provincial Councils will be adequate when the Tamil Tigers were getting defeated.
According to the latest reports of the American Senate Committee on SL, it states discussions relating to Tamil people’s issues shall be curbed , and aid shall be provided for development programs in the Sinhala Districts , and for the Forces. It is therefore interesting to note that even the International community is indifferent and not considering the Tamil people’s problems as important after the SL war ended.
But, at the forthcoming Presidential elections in SL this situation does not prevail. President Rajapaksa who thought that after the war was concluded , he could win the Presidential elections on the Sinhala votes by riding high on the war victory , and that those in the Northern Wanni and Tamil people will have no major role to play in the election of a President of SL, is now in a deep quandary as to how to solicit the Tamil votes at the forthcoming Presidential elections.
General Fonseka who won the war to enable Mahinda to go for a Presidential election and secure a second term in office is also obliged to go to the feet of the Tamil people to secure their votes.
If Gen. Fonseka has not entered the Presidential fray , President Rajapaksa would not have had the need to seek after the Tamil votes , because there was a possibility for him to win the contest on the Sinhala votes alone.
Despite the pressures mounted by India to implement the Provincial Councils in conformity with the 13th amendment to the constitution , President Rajapaksa told the Indian ‘ The Hindu’ newspaper that the implementation of the 13th amendment will have to wait until the Presidential election is over . Perhaps , he made this statement based on the conviction that he will have no need to go after the Tamil votes.
But , after Gen. Fonseka also became a candidate for the Presidential elections and with the war victory credit as well as the prospect of Sinhala votes getting divided , Rajapaksa is compelled to go trailing behind for the Tamil votes.
During the weekend , the SLFP Gen. Secretary made a sudden announcement that the Provincial Councils will be implemented in accordance with the 13th Amendment to the constitution. This clearly manifests the President’s profound concern for the Tamil votes and his realization how important they are.Before Gen. Fonseka’s candidature for the Presidential elections , Mahinda Rajapakse’s party was forbidden to speak on the 13 th Amendment.
But that prohibition no longer exists , and it is now part of the party policy after Gen. Fonseka ‘s entry into the fray. Similarly , Gen. Fonseka who was against the High security zones being withdrawn during the ceasefire period in 2002, is now pledging to withdraw them , for he also knows the importance of the Tamil votes to emerge victorious at the Presidential elections.
Both the Army Commander who headed the war operations and the President who heads the country are now coming forward, through the impending Presidential elections to retrieve the lost prestige of the Tamils and restore it to them who are displaced and in abysmal despair following the defeat in the war. This is indeed a strange twist of fate. - courtesy: The Daily Mirror -
12 Comments
The Minority vote bank of 25% is too large to be ignored. By not voting at the last election the Tamils sacrificed this political power of the minority vote. This was the foundation for the trampling of their rights by the Rajapkse Regime. Hope they will not make the same mistake again. Once bitten twice shy.
What SF offers Tamils after the military defeat of LTTE is very welcome change according to What F promised to TNA. We shall only give the benefit of the doubt to SF. But for MR....... History has the answer.......
As far as the Tamils plight concerned SF deserves my vote, But if the world is perfect I would vote for Dr. Vickramabahu.
My great concern of this election is the ruling MR regime rig the votes and illegally win the election! because the control every moving object in Sri Lanka.
Two murderers who are corrupt are competing to become the next president of SL. This speaks a lot about the calibre of the politicians in SL.
was not the sinhale vote always split,between the unp and slfp.today i beleive
the unp vote is split,but not the slfp.2004 parliament e. and the 2005 pre.e.the min.vote specially the tamil vote including s.l.an indian origin was
for the unp.today it is probably split.probably the s.l.an tamils would abstain from voting.the maj. muslim vote specially in the e.p.would be for mahinda.fonseka promises are only to get the votes of the tamils,whereas mahinda says what is possible.jvp is not at all powerfull,even they are splitt.i beeleive mr. fernando you are wrong.after the 26th probably you would have proof. ranjit de mel berlin
sri Lankan politics is now in the hands of thugs,war criminals,human righs violators,wasters of Sri Lankan foreign exchange and bribe takers.There is no place for 'STRAIGHT' POLITICIANS. The winner of the election should act on the
promises made before the election.Sri Lankan Tamils have no friends in power in
the rest of the world. Even the UN and religious hierarchy turn blind eye on Tamils sufferings.
General Fonseka has given his promises in writing to the TNA.
The Presidemt has yet to do so. SLFP is only one party in the UPFA and its statements in the media are not credible.
..."Even the elecion of a Presidnet of SL (Rajpakse) was determined by Prabakaran.." Most everyone here and abroad know his except some of the Sinhalese - who pretend they don't know of this. Ranil won the election by over a half a million votes but was cheated out. The man has no fight in him and gave in weakly, as he did when CBK proved she was more manly by snatching 3 Ministries from him. And he dared not respond in his inherent wimpish nature and she went on to dismiss his Govt. If he had only listened to the more stronger men around him then, the counry would have moved into a different path of development.
Sinhala votes in the South are divided from 1956 is a well established factor. This is generally around 30% of the votes going into both the UNP and SLFP lead factions. The unattached Sinhalese and more the Tamils and then the other minorities cast the decisive votes.
The Lankan Tamils were not at war with the State. Only a small group of committed Tamil youth. But Mahinda Rajapakse made almost all Tamils in the country suffer in various ways - the worst being
forcing into virtual Concentration Camps a third of million innocent people and parading them on TV
for their food, water and shelter like animals. This won for him the UVA and SPC Elections. But matters seem to have taken a different course since then.
Will the Tamils who suffered such indignity and shame
forge all this and vote for him is the question.
As to Mr Karunanidhi, he has no mandate to decide for the Tamils. Like many other leaders in the world, he was in sympathy with the Tamils at different times.
ISS
Exactly, Well said. Now the both leaders will promise everything to Tamils until one of them get elected.. then everything forgotten… it is been happening for last 60yrs for Tamils.
*** Exactly, Well said. Now the both leaders will promise everything to Tamils until one of them get elected. ***
LOL! How is that any different from what EVERY TAMIL LEADER has done...? or for that matter what PRABHAKARAN and the LTTE has done? ....or for that matter what ANY POLITICIAN in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD does???
TAMILS are DELUSIONAL is they think that somehow voting for a TAMIL POLITICIAN that somehow their lives would be better off... The TNA are a classic example... for the past 2 Decades they have LIED and DELIVERED EMPTY PROMISES to TAMILS here in Sri Lanka... do you honestly and Truly expect them to do any better after shouting for EELAM for so long and then suddenly embrace the UNP and FONSEKA to deliver ANYTHING AT ALL for their so-called own race?
The rest of us sane a Realistic people have moved on and not take politics so seriously...maybe TAMILS should GET A GRIP WITH REALITY and do the same...?
*** The man has no fight in him and gave in weakly, as he did when CBK proved she was more manly by snatching 3 Ministries from him. And he dared not respond in his inherent wimpish nature and she went on to dismiss his Govt.***
Ranil IS A WIMP... I have no arguments with you on that Senguttavan.
Ilaya Seran Senguttuvan
Mr Karunanithy has never been sympathetic any body other than his family and family business. although from time to time he uttered words which soundes partialy sympathetic and then turned it down or denied. etc. typical Corocodile tears.
SF WILL WIN!BUT MR'S ILLEGAL VOTES?