Rajapakse Vs Fonseka: Not a one horse race, but a contest
By Rajan Philips
This election was supposed to be a one horse race for Mahinda Rajapakse. Now it is a contest. Nobody can yet say that Mahinda Rajapakse is going to lose; nor can anyone now say that Sarath Fonseka is not going to win.
President Mahinda Rajapakse reacts on meeting a child combatant during a function to release former Tamil Tiger combatants in Manik Farm in Vavuniya, Saturday, Jan. 9, 2010. - AP pic.
When Rajapakse won in 2005, he polled 4,887,152 votes, a mere 574,995 votes more than what President Kumaratunga polled in 1999. A good portion of that would have come from the JVP which polled 344,174 votes in 1999. Ranil Wickremasinghe lost the election after polling 4,706,366 votes that was a million votes more than what he had garnered in 1999. He lost by a paltry 180,786 votes, after being deprived of the Tamil votes thanks to the LTTE ordered Tamil boycott. In Jaffna alone, only 8,524 voted, out of a total of 701,938 registered voters. In Jaffna and Vanni combined, there were 952,324 registered voters, but only 94,398 votes were cast.
Tamil kids, with pictures of presidential candidate of the common opposition and former military chief Gen. Sarath Fonseka on their caps, watch a public rally in Vavuniya, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2010_Reuters pic
So it is not difficult to see based on past voting why Sarath Fonseka is not a push over. In fact, it is easy to see that if the UNP and its UNF allies hold their bases, the JVP maintains its earlier vote level and proportion, and a majority of Tamil voters follow TNA’s lead and vote for Sarath Fonseka, he might just win quite comfortably. If you are a Fonseka supporter and want some cushion, think of the potential for sections of SLFP voters who could be swayed by Chandrika Kumaratunga and Mangla Samarweera to desert Rajapakse and support Fonseka.
The key to a Fonseka victory will be voter enthusiasm and political legwork to get the votes out on the day of the election. A few pundits predicted that the UNP voters will stay home and sulk rather than get into bed with the JVP to vote for a candidate who is neither here nor there. But the reverse might be the case as those who want to see Mahinda Rajapakse defeated see in Sarath Fonseka a real opportunity to have their wishes fulfilled, and that seems enough to fire them up.
In the past, the incumbent candidate or party has usually lost votes from one election to the next, while the opposition candidate or party gained in support. Thus the UNP lost nearly 900,000 votes between 1982 and 1988, while Chandirka Kumaratunga lost about 400,000 votes between 1994 and 1999. Although, he did not win on either occasion, Ranil Wickremasinghe, as the opposition candidate, polled 900,000 votes more in 1999 than what his party had polled in 1994, and went up by a further million votes in 2005.
The record opposition landslide was by Chandrika Kumaratunga in 1994. Running as an outsider to end the UNP’s seventeen year rule, she polled 4,709,205 votes. A whopping 2,419,345 votes more than what her mother had obtained in 1988 in a losing contest with Premadasa. There is no comparison between Chandrika Kumaratunga in 1994 and Sarath Fonseka in 2010, although in all likelihood Chandrika Kumaratunga will publicly support Sarath Fonseka in this election. For whatever reason, General Fonseka in his public interviews has been referring to the former president as Madam Kumaratunga and the current president and his brother as "these fellows".
State Vs the People
If there is a political parallel in the emergence of Sarath Fonseka against Mahinda Rajapakse – it is in the internal UNP fight for power in the 1980s when Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake revolted against the leadership of Premadasa. That was the payback from within the UNP establishment after its leadership had eviscerated the opposition in parliament. Mahinda Rajapakse too thought that he had destroyed the opposition to the point of its not being able to field a candidate against him. He has been proved wrong by Sarath Fonseka.
The similarity between the two situations is that although with sinister smarts JR, Premadasa and Rajapakse emasculated the opposition parties in parliament, they could not destroy dissent and opposition among the Sinhalese people. And Premadasa could not stop a nucleus of opposition emerging within his own party when the official opposition in parliament was in utter disarray. The political trajectories of Athulathmudali, Premadasa and Dissanayake were cut short by the LTTE, and, ironically, after jointly destroying the LTTE, Rajapakse and Fonseka are now facing each other in the political clash of their lives.
The contest couldn’t be starker. The incumbent president represents the state and the establishment by choice, desire and compulsions – political and personal. The challenger has behind him a motley range of forces opposed to the incumbent and the establishment for a variety of reasons. Sarath Fonseka is not spearheading a political movement with a premeditated agenda to take power, but he is attracting all manner of people who have something to protest about - not just the Rajapakse regime but everything that is wrong with our political system.
Fonseka’s newness to politics and his lack of formal association with any political party makes it easy for those with different political loyalties to rally round him without compromising their loyalties. And they are doing it with great enthusiasm within the separate political silos of the UNP, the JVP, the SLMC, the upcountry Tamil groups, and the TNA. They may have little in common between them, but they have a common candidate to vote for.
The presidential system has marginalized the role of parliament and the people’s representatives, while proportional representation took the power of representation out of the people and vested it in the party leaders. The doubly marginalized people are now on the verge of breaking through the presidential gates and the party offices. They may not succeed yet, but a Fonseka victory would only mean that the people have succeeded in breaking through.
There are two ways of looking at Sarath Fonseka’s candidacy. One, the top-down view, is to look at his motivations and ambitions, his career as a military man, and his competence or lack of it to be president. The second is a bottom-up view of the candidacy as an objective and wholly unintended political opportunity for the people to vent their frustrations about anything and everything. If Sarath Fonseka loses, the pundits who are taking the first view will celebrate their vindication. If he wins, the same pundits will declare that the people have elected him on a massive protest vote disregarding his limitations.
24 Comments
Fonseka taking on Rajapaksa head to head is like Karuna taking on Prabhakaran head to head.
It simply won't work.
Karuna needed to flee to Colombo for refuge and the survival of the TMVP. Likewise Fonseka and the UNP will need to humble themselves to the International community to survive.
Tamils must unconditionally support Fonseka. It is the only hope for change and an end to the Rajapaksa nightmare.
Sinhalese must also deeply ponder whether it is sensible to support the ethno-fascism promoted by Rajapaksa. His brand of politics is ruinous in the long-term.
Bringing the UNP to power will benefit the business climate in Colombo and amend relationships with the international community. UNP will salvage GSP+ and normalize relations with the West.
Rajapaksa took on dictatorship powers during the war. And now that the war has ended, he has refused to let go of his power during peace.
It is time to bring the UNP to power to reinstate civilian rule and end the Rajapaksa mafia.
The TNA Sambanthan faction and JVP Somwansa/Tilvin factions dont have any vote bases. SF will get few hundred thousand votes less than what Srima Dissanyake polled against Chandrika B
Great article. well ballance, plese come up with pros and corns if sartah wins
It is a close fight with another 2 weeks to go. With new situations and alleigences unfolding each day it is a fight to the finish.
The writer has broght in some votes statistics to bring out a point. However he has failed to recognise the pivotal background event in this prez election, the crushing of LTTE after 30 years of war, for the first time Sri Lanka had the right brave political leadership and the strategy of officials and the commanders of forces not to bow-down to international pressure and stop fighting.
The feeling of freedom is in the hearts of all Sri Lankans, Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims. All we need to consider is a simple comparison; current 'freedom' vs. the outcome of CFA of 2004. Disasterous CFA was Ranil's "startegy" backed by the "powers" , where as the current freedom won is the result of a historic brave leader of a independent srilankan nation.
Dear writer, please accept the reality than being biased !
Looks to me like the usually gullible Sinhalese are waking up from their Rip Van Winkle stupor of "the victory against the Tamils" Drugged as they were on a massive dosage of war hysteria in the Mother of all Wars, they were more than willing to tighten their belts.
But now the Badaginiya (vaithu pasi) is taking over. Rice at Rs.100 whereas it was only Rs40 a few months ago; daily vegetables over Rs.60 against Rs.30; the humble coconut that was at Rs.10 now at Rs.30; Sugar that was at Rs50 at Rs100...the housewives have started their own revolution from the kitchen and will soon fill the streets. This is more devastating to the Royal House of the Rajapakse than the war.
But the lackeys hovering around are not yielding although many have booked their flights for Jan 26 simultaneously in different airlines. As a last resort now they "discover' a new enemy to the Buddhist Sinhala nation from the continuum - 50/50, Federalism, District Councils, Separate State, Prabakaran and the Kotiyas, the Indian Menace have all lost their sting. So the new one is the Tamil Diaspora which is the LTTE now whose perceived leader to the Sinhala mind - of all people - the General.
That is the new Guli being hatched to present to the people. The first phase is Fonseka's written note to Sampanthan. The next will be the con the North East will be merged on Jan 27. Will Rogers said it best "a sucker is born every minute" And Boy, in good ole Lanker, we got plenty of them emerging every second.
ISS
Sadly enough Murugan's version of "international relations" is far from the desirable.
We should not under the pretext of "international relations" keep giving-in to the biased West (whose ultimate motive is to de-stabilise Sri Lanka) ?
Sri Lankans have an obligation to "appreciate" Mahinda's courage to stand-up and say we are a sovereign country, and 'finish' the war. What is lacking is the next step .... to look after the innocent people suffering from the war.
What "international relations" when there is a terrorist outfit dictating terms, with the support of the Western powers and the proxy LTTE's ?
Mahinda, you did the right thing. The unfortunate thing is the current fighting between the "heroes" which has earned none but a big "shame" in the eyes of the world.
Ground level support among Sinhalese for SF is amazing.
( I mean even a 45% support is amazing, I expected 70%+ support for MR among Sinhalese.)
Ranil never enjoyed it in 2005 or 1999.
Suddenly MR has become the underdog. I donot think Mervin Silva or Wimal can win swing votes for MR. MR should do right things without taking panic decisions like stimulating communal politics.
I cannot believe what might happen on 26th.
Something has gone wrong. I think calling pres. elections this early is the biggest mistake. Nobody wanted it.
Or we could have had both General & pres elections together, which will cut down costs and which will stimulate all MPs to campaign hard. Now some are dormant.
A good insight what you have left out will the Candidates finish the race? The Badagini factor is going to work and the Sihalese have to come to terms that we live in a global vilage you can borrow any amount of money from Iran India and China but you have to sell your finished products to the west so you have to listen to the west because they dont need your products which they can buy from elswere
Nathen
After over 3 decades of war our eyes are blinded and our senses are numbed to the extent that we blind and numb to the reality. After the horrific war when we should be making an effort to build bridges between the majority and minority communities, and to speed up the process of rehabilitation and reconstruction and to make our motherland a truly free country, we are once again trying to rake up racism and religious hatred. A false sense of Patriotism [ not genuine] is the last resort of scoundrels. Woe be unto them.
Mr Sengutuan, Probably you cant see the pathetic face of your hero.Does he look like winner? Can't wait to see him with Soma Ranil and Sampathan on one stage.
Good ole Modayas have waken up to the trickery of the Mother of all Betrayers Fonseka.The last act of this treachery was the signing off the North and the East to that old fox Sampathan who has always been the civil KOTIYA.
More Modayas will wake up as the 26 dawn. If anyone it is Fonseka who should book a flight. Then again with his Green Card, the US embessay will send a limo to pick him up in case.
There are lot of soldiers who are hurting and fonseka should take special care after the Election. Ranil JVP and even new found buddy Sampathan will drop him like a hot potato.
For your self, you can keep dreaming
My friend Badaginiya:
To me or the Tamil people neither of the two candidates our "heroes"
This is like asking the Jews of Germany to chose between Hitler,
Goering and Goebbels. I did'nt use the word Moday but since you do please remember "sinhalaya modaya kevung kanda yodaya" is not a
Tamil creation. I share your fear soldiers - really they are
"deserters" - have been mobilised by both sides which is why the global community fears a blood-bath after Jan 26 whoever wins.
In as much as raising the language and race cry destroyed much of our unity and the country foolishly politicising the military, as we saw in recent years, will exact a price to pay. Sadly, I fear,
a very heavy one.
Does your initial "S" stand for Sinhala. Because Tamils, Muslims
and everyone else there are going through this, which you have taken as your pseudonym.
ISS
15,000 people attended the rally in Jaffna to hear the President. This is in the Lankaenews.So imagine the actual number.
I think Mr Badaginiya is spot on.Even the long suffering Tamil people are waking up.
Colombosiders are flocking to Jaffna and the restaurants and accomodation can barely keep up.Vegetarian Curry with Rice at 80 bucks seems a real crowd puller among the Colombosiders.
New York Times have published two articles recommending SL as one of their top recommendations for Tourism and Investment.Not bad after all the high Octane anti Government propaganda by the Diaspora.
Even the pro UNP Europeans and the English must be praying that Fonseka get done for these countries want good Investment and Tourism climates not anarchy and terrorism like in the past.
Govirala,
15,000 in MR meeting in Jaffna? If you are reading Lankaenews for stories of this kind then good luck to you.
Did you know that Basil and Dogulas worked overtinme to forcefully put the people in to buses to go to this meeting on some false promises. Their votes are now going to go to SF due to unnecessary irritation caused by these two.
By the way Mrs MR is in Jaffna on damage control exercise and you may not read it in Lankaenews.
A sample of critical Election promises and Quotes from the three main players of the Opposition.
"Where is the LTTE money ?- Ranil. ( Why didn't you ask VP when you signed the MOU?)
"Fonseka will make me the Executive Prime Minister in 6 months"- Ranil ( What about Sarath Silva, Somawansa and Mangala)
"I will keep all the critical ministries to myself"- Fonseka
I will give all Public Service employees Rs 10,000 - Fonseka
"I never said Gotabaya ordered the surrendees be killed"- Fonseka
If Fonseka wins, he can not abolish himself" Sarath Silva
"Fonseka can reduce Presidential powers by relinquishing the power to hold ministries." Sarath Silva.
In Western countries that these jerks espouse,even cadet Journos will demolish these people if they make such stupid and hollow utterances in an Election campaign.
This is the most important election in Srilankan history.
The contenders should provide realistic ,practical promises to develop the country.
At least Rajapaka has vision.The infrastructure projects currently in progress and the proposed 3 and 4 Billion Dollars in project funding ear marked for the East and the North will bring tremendous prosperity to everyone there.
People have the clear choice to go forward and develop the country as a united Srlanka or go back to the dark ages where people are segregated along ethnic divides and encourage armed struggle like what was witnessed for the last three decades.
However reading some comments here, I gather the supporters of this Opposition, do not know even the names, of the media outlets who support them. So there you go.
Govirala,
I guess you are enjoying in your dream world. In our Sri Lakan villages they say 'by looking at the seed one can say how best the tree will bear fruits'. Your Rajapakse may have visions. Yet he, unfortunately, never had the right peoples to execute it saved of cource Fonseka for war efforts.
How can you expect the vision to be executed with the like of Pilliayan and Karuna in East and Douglas in the North and Mervin & his brothers elsewhere.
His biggest liability was and will be closeness to his brothers, thugs and relatives.
On the other hand you will agree that there are little differences between VP and MR. Both never worried about the world opinion and how fast it is changing . The former paid a heavy price for it and the due of the later will be on 26th Jan. VP flew his planes when the world was wary of sucide planes after 9/11. And Mahinda never care about warning on the human rights issues and as a results GSP + lost. Now the garments industry is worried about Boygot campaign in the west and it is not a worry to Mahinda.
End result is that if it is DESTINY that brought MR to power in 2005, it will be the same that made him to call an election 2 years early.
Mahinada 53 %
Fonseka 42 %
Others 5 %
This is the result of a poll conducted by a well known Web based Srilankan daily.
The demographic breakdown of the voting is 32 % from Canada, 27 % USA, 39 % from other foreign countries and only 2 % from Srilanka.
It seems this publication is read mainly by Srilankans living overseas.Among them a majority prefer Rajapaksa.
One may argue that only Sinhalese read this publication.But the fact that 32 % of the total participation is an indication that some Tamil people have also participated in the poll.
In the absence of any sample polling from SL. the only guide to the ground situation is the physical size of the gatherings at the rallies of the two main contestants.
From the reports, pictures and actual sightings of the Rallies to date, it indicates that the incumbent will get another go for sure.
Govirala has highlighted some pertinent points. that the rabid supporters of the Ranil, Fonseka & Sampathan troika, especially the Sinhalese must take note of.
These serial losers who are hell bent on exacting revenge on Rajapaks at the risk of unprecedented detriment to Srilanka, will stoop to any level to dupe the public.
Some new developments in to fore approaching the D day however,are encouraging.
The non stop chants of corruption against Rajapaksas are wearing thin.Surely, independant minded Sinhala people can't be that ignorant, not to see the fallacy of this propaganda.as that old saying you can fool some people some time, but you can't fool them all the time.
JVP heavies such as Anura is taking a back seat and openly declaring that the JVP will never allow the re merger of the East and the North.
Ranil has abandoned his chant of corruption and is now going around calling Rajapaksa a murderer.This guy should have been a stand up comedian, sorry a court jester like old" Andere".
Mangala is calling press conferences to deny that he was not denied access to the secret aggrement of Fonseka with Sampathan to deliver a mini Eelaam.
Finally, Fonseka himself has lost it, calling his "sort of God son" and family friend Ex Captain Illangage, all unparliamentary names for dobbing in him and his son in law.
What happened in 2005? Arithmetic (UNP + JVP + Mangala + SLMC + TNA) does not work in elections. It is algebra or parallelogram of forces that works. Had arithmetic worked, Ranil W would have won in 2005.
Mr. Sumanasiri Liyanage:
What happened in 2005 was the popular will of the people who voted in the majority to Ranil W - not necessarily my favourite - were
defrauded by paying a large sum of money to the Tigers and the JVP
using their secret network of Grama Sevakas to prevent over 400,000
certain UNP votes going to Ranil. This is no different to how that other trickster Ahmedinajad of Iran claims he was "elected" by popular vote. If you are the academic of the same name, at least
your learning should make you bow down to the truth and reason.
Or is it the biblical "twenty pieces of silver" factor at play?
ISS
Further to my earlier comment, a Poll conducted in Srilanka by a well known Indian polling Organization has published their results.
According to them, the incumbent has an overall lead of 12 %.The President leads the Opposition candidate in all Districts except the Tamil dominated areas.
Among the Tamil voters of Indian origin in the up country the President has a clear lead.
I am sure this lead will enhance further as the Polling day approaches.
Very sad to read some of the comments - the same old story almost since independence.
The Tamils were cheated over and over again ever since "independence". How many agreements were shredded by the Sinhala party, once it assumed power.
It will be the same story again.
The result is the gradual deterioration of the beautiful island and the departure of educated personnel from it.
Good luck to all the cheating politicians, who only want power for better corruption.
Many in the country seem to think differently to our friend Kalu
Albert. Why even the JHU is splitting making statements against
Nepotism and family bandiysm. They are now with the General. Even Monk Atureliya, who believes in a tot once in a while (to hell with mathata titha), might sail with the wind insiders are said to whisper. Arjuna Ranatunga says several senior (SLFP)ministers will make the crossing a few days before Jan 26. Are we going to see a political Earthquake as devastating as that in Por-au-Prince in the Paradise Isle?
ISS
Kalu Albert,,
Here is a survey of the more reliable Britain's "Daily Telegraph" published a week ago. Gen. Sarath Fonseka 49.5% and President
Rajapakse 41.3% I do not go with this poll and feel the margin for the General is much wider and he may win on the first round. However, things have changed since then. Why do you think the General charges yesterday the Defence Ministry has moved 20 tanks to the Cbo area - in addition to the heavy artillery already available. Some people want to play it hard, my friend. Remember the old British stuff "Play the game by the rules. And if the game goes the wrong way, change the rules?" Why does Wimal Weerawansa warn now the General may organise an attack on himself or Ranil W in the next few days to swing matters their way. Why is the well-informed and influential billionaire Harry Jayawardena making overtures through Malik S to reach both Ranil/General now?? Coming colours, dear chap, is not good for the Brothers Three??? Want to change your bets?
ISS
ISS