However, as a seasoned politician Mahinda Rajapaksa seemed to have realized that the cost of living and other issues important to the masses would erode that popularity as well as the elation among the people soon and therefore, thought it is high time to obtain the mandate for a second term.

It was the war victory that was to be his trump card at the Presidential election. Since the main opposition had gone against the wishes of the majority of the people in the country, with regard to the war, at its tail end, the chances that were for Rajapaksa at a Presidential election was extremely vivid and high.

However, with the former Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka, who was strategically behind the conclusive defeat of the LTTE on the battle-ground unexpectedly coming to the fray, Rajapaksa government has almost lost that trump card. War heroes have now fallen out, with both Rajapaksa and the Fonseka claiming the lion’s share of the credit for the victory over the LTTE in return for their political and military leadership to the war, respectively.

Meanwhile, a race for the crown of shamelessness is on with Rajapaksa camp questioning Fonseka’s war credentials while the UNP which ridiculed Government’s war efforts attempting to exploit the same credentials. Under such a context to evaluate the effectiveness of the trump card has become very difficult.

Had the horses been different at this Presidential fray, the gap between the main contenders would have been so huge that one could have called it a “one horse race.” However, the situation now becomes vaguer following the “horse change.” It has been such situations that have added value to the minority parties and votes in the history.

During the nineties there were three minority power centres in the East, North and in the up country. The Eastern power centre was formed around the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) headed by its founder leader late Muhammed Hussain Mohammed Ashraff , the Northern centre around the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) headed by Veerasingham Anandasangaree and Rajavarodayam Sampnthan. The upcountry Tamils were largely behind the trade union cum political party, Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) under the Charismatic leadership of late Saumiyamorthy Thondaman.

The Muslims, Tamils and the Tamils of Indian origin in these three power centres respectively were then considered to be the king makers at national elections. However, due to mishandling of rank and file by the hierarchy, hunger for power and perk among the second rung leaders and the carrot and stick approach of the two main parties towards the important figures in those parties have crumbled those parties into pieces, rendering the respective communities almost rudderless.

However, it is not clear as to what extent the ordinary voters have fallen apart, despite the fact that the main Tamil and Muslim political parties have fragmented into dozens of smaller parties. Therefore, there is still some amount of political significance in the ordinary minority voters.

National Integration Minister Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan (Karuna) and Eastern Province Chief Minister Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan (Pillayan) would be able to have some bearing on the pattern of voting by the Tamil voters in the Eastern Province this time, given the impact they made during the last Local Government elections in the Batticaloa district and at the Eastern Provincial Council election. Same could be inferred with regard to the Social Service and Social Development Minister Douglas Devananda and the Jaffna voters.

However, it must be recalled that the TNA, under the name of Tamil Arasu Katchi won the vital Urban Council of Vavuniya which was for a long time under the close watchful eyes of the government and its allied Tamil parties such as the PLOTE. The TNA also had a close fight with the EPDP led ruling coalition in Jaffna Municipality. Another matter that politicians would take into consideration would be the fact that pattern of voting at mini elections differ from that at a national election.

How will the general Tamil voters vote at this election? The idea that gradually on the make is that Tamils should neither boycott the election nor put forward their own candidate, the meaning of which implies that they must vote for one of the two main parties, though legally it could be interpreted that they must vote for any of the 21 candidates, except for the Tamil candidate MK Sivajilingam. The reason given has been that Tamils can swap their votes with some services to the community, since whatever done by the Tamil voters one of the main contenders would come to power.

The idea was first mooted by some of the leaders of the TNA at their high level meetings which was immediately leaked to the media. Days ago a respected Tamil intellectual, the former Supreme Court judge CV Vigneswaran took up the same stand and delved deep into it in Tamil media. Then again the Students Union of the Jaffna University issued a statement arguing on the same line on Wednesday. All indications are that the notion is fast taking root and would be the prime factor that is going to be the guide to the general Tamil voters.

But fresh from a bloody war, who is the main candidate who can win the hearts and minds of the Tamil people, especially the Northerners? Rajapaksa or Fonseka? Although TNA’s decision in this regard might not cover all Northern Tamils, it surely would have a considerable impact on them.

Tamils had a fear, soon after the war that chances for voicing on their rights would be totally wiped out as almost all Sinhalese nationalist forces had converged on one platform. They seem to view the UPFA leadership as hard line nationalists. The JVP and the JHU were against any sort of power sharing. General Fonseka even being at the helm of the military had made remarks that hurt both Tamils as well as Muslims.

However, now those forces have fallen out. Both groups seem to lure the minorities while both sides inciting racism whenever other side talks to Tamils, focusing on Tamil demands. Under these circumstances, on what criteria the Tamils are going to make their choice? They, however have to do it, if they are to stick to their new found notion “Tamils should neither boycott the election nor put forward their own candidate”.