President Rajapaksa must expand his diplomatic circle beyond Iran, Libya, Mynamar and Palestine to G8 and G20 countries
By Shanaka Jayasekara
The resounding victory by President Mahinda Rajapaksa placed in perspective the feelings of many Sri Lankans, a sense of gratitude towards a President that had the courage to withstand international pressure and take the battle to the end. A feat that was by all considerations thought to be inconceivable.
As a war-time President he braved international pressure and provided political determination as never seen before to completely annihilate the LTTE. The three forces since independence had maintained their individual roles but had no formal coordinating structure and a poor record of joint operations capability.
The President’s brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a retired military officer, as Defence Secretary changed the dynamics of inter-service coordination. His personal understanding of the ground situation and personal relationships within the services proved to be invaluable for successful joint operations.
The Mavil Aru confrontations provided the initial test for the Gotabaya plan.
The military strategy included a massive troop surge, improved firepower and the psychological motivation to defeat the LTTE. As the advancing military achieved success after success, it was evident that the military achievements were not complemented with diplomatic success.
The miserable failure on the diplomatic front resulted in battlefield successes becoming diplomatic liabilities for the government. The impulsive foreign policy approach facilitated a culture of diplomatic contempt and defiance, most often through megaphone diplomacy.
While this strategy worked well with the domestic audience, the image and reputation of the country internationally was on a free fall. The Rajapaksa administration viewed both local and international issues from a domestic prism with theatrics to the local audience.
The President’s circle excelled in a stricly domestic comfort zone in which all the rhetoric was framed for local politics.
This was compounded by the disinformation campaign carried out by the pro-LTTE lobby in western capitals and a hostile foreign media that found Rajapaksa bashing to generate headline airtime. Added to this, the diplomatic debacles over a special envoy with Downing Street and personal baggage between Robert Blake and the Rajapaksa administration caused relations with the west to further deteriorate.
In his second term, President Rajapaksa will have to redefine his international credentials and rebuild the international standing of Sri Lanka. The President needs to expand his diplomatic circle beyond Iran, Libya, Myanmar and Palestine, to include the economic heavyweights such as the G8 and G20 countries.
Sri Lanka is at a critical point with great opportunities for economic revival, however with limited local capital any real economic progress is dependent on infusion of foreign capital and investor confidence. Therefore, at the political and economic level rapprochement with the west will be the defining factor for strong economic growth or lost opportunities.
The Rajapaksa administration will have to place economic growth as the bedrock of all future development plans. In the past, the war deflected attention away from economic issues and economic growth, however now with a directionless JVP in the opposition and former LTTE combatants returning to civilian life, the youth unemployment bulge will be a key destabilizing factor if not addressed satisfactorily.
President Rajapaksa has demonstrated that he will not be subservient to the west, a leadership quality that all Sri Lankans can be proud of. The Rajapaksa administration needs to develop a foreign policy approach that embodies his strengths as someone the west cannot push around, but also a dependable partner they can engage positively.
The Rajapaksa foreign policy must make it clear that Sri Lanka stands by its war heroes, and this is a non-negotiable element of the policy. The preoccupation of the west with a witch hunt and a scrutiny of the forensics of the war in which both sides transgressed on accepted norms is counterproductive.
There were bigger hospitals than the one at Puthukkudiyiruppu destroyed in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but the world moved forward. It must be made clear that the government will not dwell on the past, nor be unduly burdened by a legitimate victory over terrorism.
The government on many occasions offered the LTTE opportunities to surrender prior to the final assault; in fact the last cessation of hostility period for surrender ended only a week before 19 May 2009. Therefore, much of the criticism over the conduct in the final days must be apportioned to the LTTE for its decision to go down fighting.
However, moving forward cannot be "business as usual", there has to be a shift in the political culture and political discourse. President Rajapaksa needs to recognize the deteriorating state of governance, rampant corruption and breakdown of law and order. As a President elected on the goodwill of the people for defeating terrorism, it is only fair that he improves on his governance and integrity credentials.
The President needs to put forward sound reform proposals on governance and devolution with the same political will and commitment as shown in respect of the war. The political will for change can only be achieved if the President is willing to expand his insular comfort zone and consider the bigger picture. Based on the presidential election results, the ruling coalition is likely to have a clear majority at the general election, further strengthening the President’s ability to implement change.
In the aftermath of the war, many political pundits predicted a post-war regime change, the Churchill fate as the turning point for Sri Lanka. The resounding victory at the presidential elections indicates that President Rajapaksa has endeared his regime to his local audience, and excelled in his domestic comfort zone. A true statesman must command the confidence of his constituents, which the President undoubtedly does, but he must also be able to do so as regards the international community.
Now the test is to expand the comfort zone beyond the local audience, to build an international profile for his leadership and the country—to engage with the international community as equals and not as outcasts. The President has a three year window of opportunity to set the foundation for reform and implement change.
The provisional decision for Sri Lanka to host the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in 2013 will provide a litmus test for the President’s international standing. The next three years will also be crucial in terms of economic stability, the fallout from the withdrawal of GSP plus, the uncertain future of a belligerent JVP and an open tap policy on money supply, are all critical issues that need immediate attention.
History will honour the President and Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the architects of the military victory over the LTTE, however as for his stewardship towards a political settlement, peace and economic growth, it is yet unknown what the history books will say.
(Shanaka Jayasekara is Associate Lecturer, Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism,Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia)
19 Comments
OK with G8 orG20. But make sure that Srilanka is not their colony and can't buy poor people who live there.
Rajapaksa adminstration is fully corrupted and favours to their families. Family circle is robbing the country. Recent Election to reelect the President is full of election frauds, vote rigging and altering computer data. As a result of these frauds he got the victory.
A significant percentage of money which comes from expatriates, foriegn aids and exports etc is being robbed by the regime. So will these countries will come to make ties with our country which is having such a nasty record in money handling.
To be accepted among the fraternity of nations requires statesmanly behaviour at home. Harrassing the opposition and killing media people is not the best behaviour to gain international recognition. As for developing the country, who cares as long as we have a king.
Winning the war is something but one needs to sort out the problems facing the country first. Corruption and human right abuses have to cease. Problems the tamils are facing in the country have to be resolved. All these have to be done before one can expand one's diplomatic circle ......
It is easy for plitical pundits to advise what to do next. But no political pundit expected MR to annihilate LTTE. If MR did not rely on so called isolated countries, he could have never won the war. Having common ground with all countries in the world specially with west should not based on betraying sri-lankan identity. If you remember JRJ whom people called Yanki Dicky totally relied on west, but got no help during Indian invasion in 1983. So just being pro-western would not help. Taking regional realities into consideration is very important. It is true that small country like Sr-lanka can not antoganise west. That is not a reason to be a Western lackey. JRJ proved that his loyality to west did not help Sri-Lanka.
Last time Rajapakshe and Co came to power with the help of JVP, Mangala, and specially LTTE. Later they backstabbed and destroyed them.
This time, as soon as they came to power, they made the opposition angry (with a fraud election and witch hunt), they made the SLA angry, they made the media angry, they made a large amount of people angry (undemocratic acts), they made the Tamils and the minorities angry, they made Tamil Nadu and the Tamil Diaspora angry, they made India angry (by leaning towards China), they made US angry (by leaning towards their enemies), and they made the UN and the west angry.
Only the Sinhala-Buddhist Nationalists seem to be Happy. Are they laying a foundation for a Peaceful and prosperous Sri Lanka or for a complete ruin and disaster?
Sixty two years of post-independent politics in Sri Lanka has only brought the country towards doom and today it has come very closer to the dooms day.
I myself sent a massage to Sri lanka government urging to regain friendship with us, uk, Eu and Israel because we need them in all field. However, they all had cordial friendship with President in the last part of war, but on other hand their media were attacking presedent and Sinhalese in general to apease tamil or whatever reason, and this caused the deteriation of Sri lanka - west relationship. Hovever, I still like to tell Sri lanka to bring back Israel and West and in the meantime infom that we do not take any idears from west related to Tamil.
Also, lately, US and Eu have shown they are genuinly interested in a good relationship.
Additonaly, in regard to Israel, Israel never had intention to go to UN against us. It happened after I wrote a news paper articel attacking Israel because of Western media attack on us.
However, later on, I regreted about it for two thing: one, the wording of that article was very ofensive to Jews and secondly, I found that Israel had cordial relationship Sri lanka, and Israel was supporting Sri lanka to get rid of Tigers. Also, Israel had invited Sri lanka Navy chief for victory celeberation. After all, I felt I should not have used Israel at all to retaliate western news media.
I believe Mr. Rajapakshe is heading towards the right direction. It is not an easy task to overcome every chalenges though it is necessary. It needs time, patience. I think it is not fair suggest that Mr. Rajapakshe maintain goodwill only with Libiya, Iran, Myanmar and Palastine. The writer may not aware the other countries such as Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia , Japan, Cuba and there are so many other countries have strong ties with Rajapakshe administration. It is no doubt the countries like Norway, Denmark, Swiden and England are have a negative relationships. Although Canada, US, France, Germany and some Western countries are critisize the Rajapakshe administration but they are not hostile. Specially Canadian government has a very balance stance though there were some politicians chose the the difference paths to satisfy their constituencies.
Mr. Rajapakshe only an intelligent and dedicated politician not a magician. He cannot make things up side down over night. It is very obvious the major tasks he has done this four year short time period. He he somebody people can trust. God willing he will take the nation to place beyond their expectation.
The author's bottomline is about what the history books will say. Well, the chances are that the history books will read the increasing impotence of the western powers, the ascendance of the Eastern powers and how the Tamil diaspora had placed all their faith on their western colonial allies to the position of arrogant dismissal of the rising Eastern powers. On the contrary the MR foresight has been on the rising powers who address these issues on a non-partisan basis. Hence the security for the MR action plans and the sustainability of the MR Chinthana in a fast changing global power structure.
There is already plenty of advice from all over the world to the President. Thank you.
it is hardly any chance standing for Sri lanka to imrove the international relationship beyond some of the Asian countries be cause whith crusing of LTTE the wentern countries have shown their displeasure towars Sri lanka charging war crimes and the with the starting of election the situation has been so deteriorated as the and added extra burdent o clear it s name as the political killings,election related malpractices etc purporated by the govrnment.
Great article. I 100% agree with the writer. Thank you very much. If MR wants to bring prosperity to our country and rebuild his image in intenational world, only this article is enough. It has everything from A to Z in simple, clear format. Mr. President please read this and work accoridng to it.
I wonder why Javed Yusuf conveniently omitted the other countries our government is maintaining relation with like China, Russia and 6 GCC countries? It is the West put undue pressure on the government to turn to these countries who genuinely helped the Sri Lankan government.
It is astonishing that Yusuf is blaming the Sri Lankan government instead of the West for its strange attitude!
First of all neither Dutta Gemunu nor Rajapaksa defeated Tamils or the LTTE. It was strategic withdrawl to allow other stronger forces among Tamils to take over the task without putting undue harm to Tamil civilian.While poor singhalese masses are gloating over "defeat" of LTTE, the Tamils are progressing in other ways.
What the singhalese must come to understand is that they must improve their standard of living than degrading that of Tamils. In the 60 years who did well with all your effort?. We, the Tamils are doing well but you would not see it for it is silent victory of bank balances and beautiful homes in some of the largest cities of the world, where international politcs are decided.
Thugs and State Terrorism has no place in modern societies. The singhalese people must leave the Tamils alone and mind their own busienss if they want to elevate to world class level.You cannot call a murderer a hero, every body knows the murders that happened long time ago.I am willing to invest some of my money to help Singhalese people know that there are better ways to conduct life than racism, fanaticism, thuggerism, violence and barbarianism.
Already the somersaulting politcians are gyrating towards Jaffna, which is fast becoming one of the nerve centres of world finance.
Ultimately it is MONEY that does the talking, that is our next means. Which side USA, EU and China is going to be?
Rest assured we will take over the country without even a drop of blood or even a tinge of feeling and change the lanscape of Sri Lanka forever. The dawn of a era of economic properity for the Singhalese people are not that far away.
I consider this is an article written by a true patriot with a clear intention although I do not agree that Hon M.R's foreign relationship is restricted only to few countries. This distancing himself & the S.L.Govt happened purely due to the decisions he had to take in order to crush the LTTE terrorism for which certain western countries did not have a liking for known reasons.Now West has realized that although Sri Lanka is a small country they can not ignore anymore. Recently published U.S.Senate report is an evidence for that. Therefore as the writer rightly suggested, now our Govt should give our positive response towards that signal and establish good relationship without betraying our identity.He has the courage & wisdom to do that & will hope for the best.
What's the issue ?
SL has good relations with both G8 and G20 nations
MR's first post-election trip is to a G8 nation
G20 nations have been in the forefront of recent aid to SL. India, China, Russia etc
Or is the author simply using G8 and G20 as euphimisms for "The West" ????
Rajapaksa and brothers will be tried for crimes against humanity and war crimes soon in the international criminal Court. No western governments will go for partnership or friendship with Rajapasa government for what they did to Tamils and crime against humanity.
While agreeing with the author and some commentators in the column, I would like to point out that West (USA, UK, EU, Canada, and Australia) has some extent political and economic influence on developing countries. But this influence is dramatically declining comparing to the last two decades of last century. Twenty First century, new world order is emerging considerably; Russia, China, India and Brazil. China became second world economic power just a couple of months ago. MR administration has maintained good relationship with those countries. I.e. emerging economic and political powers helped Sri Lanka at the final phase of the civil war as well as UN human Right battle in Geneva, Switzerland, last year.
Western powers are trying to maintain their role in the world politics. However, so far, they are terribly failed the main issues like Palestine – Israel conflict, India – Pakistan Kashmir conflict, Iran and North Korea nuclear ambition!
Having lived in the West for two decades, I agree with Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of civilizations theory. That is Western world loosing its grip with developing world daily since 1920s.
One does not get into the G7 or G20 Clubs merely by wishing. The economic performance of the country satisfying all the relevant aggregates is the determining factor. We have much work to do to move higher than the G77 to which we are now placed in. Our chronic economy charaterised by the escalating Cost of Living factor, the high inflation, stagnant economy are all driving us further down. Whereas we should be invigorating our economic performance we are wasting resources and economic production by wave after wave of Elections.
The Central Bank gives out figures that are highly suspect because if the economic health is as good as what Mr Nivard Cabraal paints, this should show both in a drastic drop in inflation and accompanying factors. Let us remember
Greece did a lot of "manufacturing accounts and cooking up figures" and is almost on the verge of being kicked out of the EU. The Greek counter-part of the Central Bank is the laughing stock of the world. As of today, the entire Greek economy has virtually ground to a halt because the Govt has called upon all sections of the people for a wage freeze - that they have totally rejected. PM George Papanderou is virtually begging the EU to bail his Govt/country out and has admitted the massive fraud.
ISS